BBC: climate change shocker

This from Paul Hudson, the BBC's climate change correspondent under the headline 'What happened to global warming?'

'This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.

But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.
And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise. '

Of course these facts are not a surprise, many of us have been repeating them for years. What is a surprise is that the BBC should undergo this Pauline conversion, after only 11 years of cooling.

The new theory they favour is Pacific Decadal Oscillation (following the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean) which suggests we have another 30 years of cooling ahead of us.

Perhaps we could now have an apology?

Moon conspiracy theory

The Americans say they intentionally crashed a spacecraft into the moon.

I wonder: I'm sure I heard a cry of 'Allahu Akbar' as the thing went in.

Cuts

It is being said in the left wing press that it is too early to cut expenditure; economists are being wheeled out to say it would be a mistake and this is being used as the Labur led attack on Cameron/Osborne economics. I think there is some (intentional) confusion here: it is not easy to find an economist who thinks this level of government expenditure is sustainable for long or who believes a sudden surge in growth is going to come from somewhere to get us out of the problem.

It is of course true that if you start pressing down on the money supply while the economy has not yet emerged into safety you run risks of stalling the recovery. My opinion is ignore this: what little exsperience of expenditure cuts exists (and it is usually forgotten in Labour circles that under Mrs Thatcher it rose inexorably, year after year, no cuts at all) suggests that it takes longer than you think. Look at the options:

Pension age: nothing is going to happen with this until 2016.

ID cards: to the extent these expenditures are already in the figures, this would be an immediate cut.

Local government: we all think that local councils shouldn't have diversity advisers and minority culture co-ordinators, but without taking away local powers (and quite the reverse, localising more, appears to be the fashion) all government can do is cut the subsidies. Local councils are then quite capable of keeping the diversity advisers and closing schools. It would take years to educate them out of this.

Big projects: someone always asks what the alternative would be. Cut the Navy's new aircraft carriers and they'll ask how they can get their planes around. Cut Trident and we'll need some other force de frappe to maintain our seat at the top table. Cut the Eurofighter and there will be tales of woe from the RAF. Cut the east coast main line and we'll have to spend more on roads. And each one will want a public enquiry, taking years.

And so it goes on. Civil servants don't want to lose their departments and introduce delays of their own. My advice is to start trying to cut as from Day 1. Then over a five year term you might have started. Start by selling things; everything a government doesn't need to own but which can be run perfectly well or better by the private sector: hospitals, post offices etc. This brings in immediate cash, the other things are just tinkering.

Nobel Peace Prize

The award of the Nobel Prize for Baroque Obama is perfectly ridiculous. Apparently he was nominated two weeks after his election and even now has achieved nothing on the world stage except increase the number of troops in Afghanistan.

They would have done better with Silvio

Boy George

This from the excellent Matthew Parris who is covering the Conservative conference for the Times:

Anxious on Tuesday to establish the time of George Osborne’s speech expected towards the end of the morning, I approached a senior Conservative MP. “Osborne?” I said, “About 12?”

“Goodness me, no, dear boy. He’s at least 14.”

Italy: new problems for Silvio

Silvio Berlusconi said when he finally passed through parliament the bill guaranteeing him immunity from prosecution 'now I won't have to spend Saturdays talking to my lawyer'.

Now he has lost his immunity and if it is bad news for Silvio it may also be bad news for Italy. Despite asserting the primacy of the constitution and despite eliminating what was clearly a cynical manoeuvre to keep the Prime Minister out of the courts, the country will now have to suffer a new era of mistrust between the government and the judiciary, and few years of political posturing by those who see themselves as his successors, both inside and outside his party.

The business of government will have to take second place for a bit.

Australia: unmitigated tinnies disaster

Their case almost unheard in the cosy human rights salons of the West, Australian motor racing fans are suffering inhuman crackdowns to their civil liberties.

Spectators at the Bathurst 1000, a 3-day motor racing event, will be restricted to 24 cans of beer a day, or 4 litres of wine.

There is no word yet as to whether the British government intend to copy this rule.

EU: Greece: no change

When I used to visit Greece on business in the 1980s the President was called Karamanlis and the Prime Minister Papandreou. The latest election in Greece has been fought between George Papandreou (son and grandson of previous Prime Ministers) and Kostas Karamanlis (nephew). It seems to have been the turn of Papandreou, with his PASOK (Pan-Hellenist Socialist Movement) party, in defiance of a movement all over Europe towards the centre right..

Both PASOK and its opponents, New Democracy, are deeply corrupt and no change is anticipated to the direction of Greek life, which is downwards. The policy of both parties is to await the next cheque from the European Union, which one day will not arrive.

Scotland: not for a Cameron

It gives me a warm, generous feeling to recommend to you an article in the Guardian by Jackie Ashley. You see, not only is Ms Ashley the long suffering wife of New Labour apologist turned tricky questioner Andrew Marr, but it is a rare treat because usually she writes complete bilge.

The article makes the point that the referendum David Cameron ought to be worried about is not a possible one on Europe (don't hold your breath is my advice) but one in Scotland on independence. The argument runs that once the Scots have seen the extent of the budget cuts, and given that New Labour is likely to be weak north of the border and the Conservatives even weaker, they will flood to the polling booths and vote for secession.

'Bring it on' is my view, but the article's title 'Cameron could well be the last ever UK Prime Minister' does make you think.

UK: The Conservatives and Europe

I have often had my differences with the Conservative Party, but the one major problem for me has always been its supineness over Europe. I was once a Conservative, culminating in being on the shortlist for the candidacy in a safe seat, but left and helped start UKIP because of John Major's acceptance of Maastricht.

Mr Cameron, when it became clear that the Labour Party had no intention of honouring its pledge to hold a referendum on the European Constitution, or Lisbon Treaty, said that the Conservatives would hold a referendum. This then changed to holding a referendum if Lisbon hadn't been ratified by the time of the election, and if it had they 'would not let matters rest' whatever that means. You see: supine.

The result of the Irish vote is due this afternoon and if the opinion polls are to be believed they will vote yes. It now seems less than likely, as Mary Ellen Synon thinks, that Vaclav Klaus in the Czech Republic can hold out. The Conservative Conference is about to start and Cameron and Hague cannot get through it without some open debate on Europe. If they stick to their original pledge to hold a referendum whatever, then the first year or so of Conservative rule will be smothered by the European issue (although this might be a good thing: if you want to take some unpopular decisions do it while the press are wittering on about something else). If they roll over should the Treaty be ratified they will look weak and unpopular to the Eurosceptics; Ukip came second in the European elections and has 13 MEPs.

One answer being mooted is that they accept Lisbon but pledge to repatriate some spheres of influence from Brussels. This could include the Working Time Directive, which makes a criminal of anyone trying to do the best for his family and work overtime.

Such a statement, and it would have to be a clear statement, would be good enough for me. I don't want the rescue of the economy to be overshadowed by the European issue, but this would be a clear statement that we are going to insist on a two speed (or multi-speed) Europe. So in the future we and other countries would have the option according to this precedent of opting into or out of any more nonsense like an upgraded European army, or repatriating a few more, like foreign policy.

Let's see what happens over the next few days. This is Mr Cameron's chance to show a bit of steel. He'll get my vote if he does.

BAe and bribery

BAe Systems, which we used to know as British Aerospace, Britain’s largest manufacturing company, may face bribery charges. Ironically the Serious Fraud Office will approach Baroness Scotland, herself recently found guilty of a breach of the law in relation to her employing an illegal immigrant. This is a good example of why Baroness Scotland should have resigned some time ago: even if she is inclined to rule out a prosecution she will go ahead so she doesn’t seem corrupt (Ha!).

BAe is alleged to have paid bribes relating to contracts in Africa and Eastern Europe. An earlier charge of bribery with respect to a Saudi arms contract was not pursued on the grounds that it was not in the national interest to do so (it would have brought up the names of which members of the Saudi Royal Family were on the take, and it’s a fairly long list).

People often forget that the sin here is the taking of the bribe. It means that someone of influence has caused the Saudis to buy British planes or weaponry, irrespective of their suitability, because of the bribe: in other words someone paid by the Saudi Government (or Tanzania or whatever) is not acting in the interests of their employers and feathering his own nest at their expense.

Everybody would like to see this practice die out but to use as a means of killing it the banning of the paying of bribes is plain daft. In some countries it is impossible to make a sale without paying bribes and if you don’t you lose the business. Badly run countries are being allowed to pass on the burden of policing their corrupt systems to foreign contractors: these governments are quite happy with the bribes system and do nothing to stop it– senior people are involved, after all. It is only the bien pensant West (and not all of that) which is troubled by it.

In the meantime there are plenty of nations which are quite happy with the concept, for example France and China, and so British jobs are lost.

This is madness. I could almost forgive Barones Scotland her sins if she had the courage to stand up and say so.

National Day

1st October is national day in The People's Republic of China, Cyprus and Nigeria, each of which has a history of bloodshed, illicit government and cruelty.

Obviously not a good day to start a country.

Roman Polanski

Frédéric Mitterand (now there’s an interesting name), the French Culture minister, has said that Roman Polanski should not be detained under a valid extradition warrant and in this he is backed by a host of arty farties, pleading, on what grounds I do not know, that he be released. Jacek Bromski, head of the Polish Filmmakers Association said ‘most people feel he has atoned for the sins of his young years’. Is this right? Do they? I rather think they don’t.

Polanski was convicted, having pleaded guilty, to having had sex with a minor. In America as in Britain and other civilised countries this is regarded as rape because a child cannot be deemed able to consent. Again as in other countries it is not subject to a statute of limitations.

Of course Polanski must return to America to serve his sentence just as any other fugitive from justice would have to. What I want to know is how he came to live openly in France, having taken French citizenship. Is it the custom in France to offer sanctuary to convicted rapists and paedophiles on the run? What has been going on here? Mitterand says Sarkozy himself is urging that the warrant be dropped.

Why?

Hitler Shock

The Daily Mail reveals that tests have shown that the skull believed to be Hitler's, taken from the bunker, is in fact that of a woman.

This can mean one of two things: either it is not Hitler's skull or.....

Makes you think, doesn't it?

EU: The Lisbon Treaty - hope?

Mary Ellen Synon writes in the Mail that the Irish referendum on Lisbon isn't as important as everyone thought. The excellent Vaclav Klaus, President of the Czech Republic, has said he will sign the thing only after the November elections there, but it now appears that the caretaker government will last well into next year, perhaps June, when there must be elections in the UK. Cameron, if he wins, will hold a referendum in which the British will certainly vote NO.

I can't say I quite share Mary Ellen's optimism - there are some fairly unscrupulous people involved here - but this might just be a ray of hope that the countries of the EU will retain some of their democracy for a little while longer.

Baroness Scotland (2)

There is a petition on the Downing St website to urge the immediate dismissal of Baroness Scotland. You can sign it, if you like, here

Silvio for the Nobel!

Just when you thought the great man was on his last legs, we learn that there is a movement to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Silvio Berlusconi. It is said to be receiving hundreds of signatures every day, although its website, http://silvioperilnobel.sitonline.it/ lists only around 30, most of whom, by an astonishing coincidence, appear to be members of his PdL party. The website is linked to Facebook and Twitter and invites you to contribute by credit card if your impatience is overwhelming you. No Italian has received the Peace Prize since 1907 and, as the website points out, it has been awarded in the past to Yasser Arafat and Al Gore. Cometh the hour, cometh the man.

The next event in the programme of the Leader’s candidature is on 29th September at the Piazza Colonna, Rome, to celebrate his 73rd birthday. Nearest airports are Fiumicino and Ciampino in case you want to leave Rome in a hurry.

But the great news is that there is a campaign song for you to sing along with, ‘Peace can’ written by Loriana Lana, who has contributed to some of the Berlusconi / Apicella smash hit albums. It is available here. At the risk of spoiling it for you, I can reveal that it contains the line (my translation) ‘The Abruzzo awakes incredulous, the snow and the sun meet, and your hand is here.’ I found it a moving experience.

They are correct to refer to these previous winners. I think this is the direction the Nobel Prize committee has been seeking. Come on Silvio!

Baroness Scotland

Scarcely believable. This is the position as I write. Some time ago the Labour Party pushed through a change to the immigration procedures making it a criminal offence for anyone employing an illegal immigrant not to have done the necessary enquiry into the employee's status and not to have kept a copy of the documentation supplied. It was a typical Labour law designed to put further burden on small private sector companies. Little did they think it would one day snare one of their own.

The minister responsible for pushing this legislation through Parliament was Baroness Scotland who is now Attorney General, the chief legal adviser to the Government.

It turns out that Lady Scotland herself employed an illegal immigrant without keeping copies of the documents and has now been fined £5,000 by the UK Border Agency. Gordon Brown's office says it was not intentional and she can stay in her job.

The whole point of this legislation was that you can still be guilty without it being intentional: a further example of being guilty until proven innocent, a concept which has been creeping into our legal system over the last decade or so.

It is quite impossible for the Attorney General to stay in her job now, indeed she should have resigned days ago. Otherwise it is a case of making laws which everyone has to obey except the Party Apparatchiks.

She must go, and go immediately.

UK: the pound in your pocket

Surprise goings on in the curency markets where sterling has fallen to 1.11 against the euro. A surprise to me at least, and, it would appear, to a number of traders.

It seems the reason was some rather exuberant reporting of a statement by the Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King, concerning reducing the rates paid on bank deposits at the Central Bank. The Bank has said this was merely a restatement of what it had said in the August Inflation Report.

There may be a slight readjustment but not much more for a bit. The markets are still worried about monetary conditions in the UK. However I still forecast a realignment against the euro as we begin to come out of recession, due to Britain's more flexible labour markets.

Berlusconi update

Incidentally there are rumours among the chattering classes of the right that a surprise contender for Berlusconi's replacement might be Mario Draghi, governor of the Central Bank and former big smell at Goldman Sachs. You heard it here first.