06 June, 2014
Driverless
Speaking of driving, do you wonder what it's like in Google's new driverless car?
Two people sitting side by side talking, perhaps caressing, neither with hands on the steering wheel, while the car careers along?
Come to Italy and see.
Il telefono
I rarely criticise Italy, in part because I like it here and in part because I am a guest, but I have to mention one of the worst characteristics of Italians, worse than their crazy, corrupt political system or their inability to drive cars. It is their attitude to the telephone.
Last night a delivery van came up our drive and the driver got out and hammered on the window. When I opened the front door he was on the telephone. I asked what he wanted and he held up a hand for me to be silent.
I tried again and then shouted that either he could talk to me or the telephone but he carried on. As I was closing the door he said 'Hold on, Giorgio, I've got a problem with a foreigner'. He was carrying a courier's delivery instructions so I snatched them from him and shouted directions (he was still on the 'phone).
In Italy, the person you are talking to on the 'phone is more important than the one you are talking to face to face. I was once in a meeting with some minor government official - I had made an appointment - and his 'phone rang so often (he answered it each time) that I was beginning to forget why I had come. So I 'phoned him.
He was a bit confused hearing my voice so I said we'd leave the line open so we weren't disturbed any more. He looked at me incredulously but it worked.
Last night a delivery van came up our drive and the driver got out and hammered on the window. When I opened the front door he was on the telephone. I asked what he wanted and he held up a hand for me to be silent.
I tried again and then shouted that either he could talk to me or the telephone but he carried on. As I was closing the door he said 'Hold on, Giorgio, I've got a problem with a foreigner'. He was carrying a courier's delivery instructions so I snatched them from him and shouted directions (he was still on the 'phone).
In Italy, the person you are talking to on the 'phone is more important than the one you are talking to face to face. I was once in a meeting with some minor government official - I had made an appointment - and his 'phone rang so often (he answered it each time) that I was beginning to forget why I had come. So I 'phoned him.
He was a bit confused hearing my voice so I said we'd leave the line open so we weren't disturbed any more. He looked at me incredulously but it worked.
05 June, 2014
Super Mario?
The European Central Bank's decision to adopt negative interest rates is not the first time this has
happened. In Switzerland in the 1980s it was fairly common in order to stop upward pressure on the Swiss Franc, and it is worth noting that it didn't help much. The markets decided Swiss Francs were the place to be and suffered the cost.
What ECB Governor Mario Draghi has done will have a short term effect of pushing the euro down, but it may be too little and it is quite likely to be too late.
Here is how it would work.
1. A bank, let's say French, keeps money on deposit at the ECB because it is safe there: safer than depositing it with another French bank and a lot safer than lending it to a French company.
2. It either keeps the money at the ECB, wearing the cost, or draws it out.
3. It decides whether to shrink its balance sheet, that is to say repay the corresponding creditor, or lend it to someone else. The other French banks are in the same position, as are most European banks, so it seeks out a company to lend to.
4. The company borrows for a new project, which it is cautious about because Europe is already depressed.
5. It slowly invests and takes on workers.
6. The workers, once they have been employed for a bit, feel confident and spend more.
7. That extra spending generates more investment and the eurozone recovers.
Apart from the fact that in those seven steps a lot can go wrong, it is easily seen that it takes time. The economist's rule of thumb is 6-9 months before industrial activity picks up and a further 6-9 months before prices improve.
Has Draghi left this too late?
What ECB Governor Mario Draghi has done will have a short term effect of pushing the euro down, but it may be too little and it is quite likely to be too late.
Here is how it would work.
1. A bank, let's say French, keeps money on deposit at the ECB because it is safe there: safer than depositing it with another French bank and a lot safer than lending it to a French company.
2. It either keeps the money at the ECB, wearing the cost, or draws it out.
3. It decides whether to shrink its balance sheet, that is to say repay the corresponding creditor, or lend it to someone else. The other French banks are in the same position, as are most European banks, so it seeks out a company to lend to.
4. The company borrows for a new project, which it is cautious about because Europe is already depressed.
5. It slowly invests and takes on workers.
6. The workers, once they have been employed for a bit, feel confident and spend more.
7. That extra spending generates more investment and the eurozone recovers.
Apart from the fact that in those seven steps a lot can go wrong, it is easily seen that it takes time. The economist's rule of thumb is 6-9 months before industrial activity picks up and a further 6-9 months before prices improve.
Has Draghi left this too late?
03 June, 2014
El Rey
Despite a lot of sniping in the media, I believe Juan Carlos will be remembered fondly by history. He could have allowed military dictatorship to continue in Spain but stuck to his line and ushered the country into the modern era.
Handing over now, however, is something of a hospital pass. Felipe must deal with calls for a Republic and with Catalan (and other) attempts at secession, at a time the people are still suffering from austerity.
Good luck to him.
Handing over now, however, is something of a hospital pass. Felipe must deal with calls for a Republic and with Catalan (and other) attempts at secession, at a time the people are still suffering from austerity.
Good luck to him.
Crazy prices
The European Commission has warned that house price inflation will damage the UK economy.
They may be right - a broken clock is right twice a day - but it does seem impertinent that people who have made such a mess of the Eurozone economy (the ECB is about to take Emergency measures to avoid the spiral to deflation) should lecture us. The unfortunate folk in Europe would like a bit of house price inflation.
The facts, in case anybody is interested, are that if you bought a house in 2007 it is just now - this month - getting back to the level you paid for it. I don't call that crazy.
Source: Nationwide.co.uk
01 June, 2014
Bad exchange
'No soldier is left behind' intones President Obama as he buys the freedom of an American soldier with the release of Taliban prisoners from Guantanamo Bay.
Laudable, but the fact remains that America has paid, and every terrorist in the world now knows it will pay again. Every potential hostage in extremist areas must be trembling.
The fact also remains that the President can release prisoners, surely making the separation of Executive and Justice a laughing matter.
I congratulate the freed American sergeant and his family, but this is by no means good news.
Laudable, but the fact remains that America has paid, and every terrorist in the world now knows it will pay again. Every potential hostage in extremist areas must be trembling.
The fact also remains that the President can release prisoners, surely making the separation of Executive and Justice a laughing matter.
I congratulate the freed American sergeant and his family, but this is by no means good news.
The devil you know
Most people don't follow the rarified bits of European politics, feeling, correctly in my view, that it will go on in the direction chosen by unelected politicians, whatever the voters might think.
But if you have a modest concern about how your life is being managed by other people, consider this. The European Parliament is the institution which is put forward as being democratic, even though its little rules mean that anyone who is against the whole business is never allowed to speak for more than one minute (sometimes two). The Parliament decided that it wanted a bit of influence over the Head of the Commission, so it introduced the concept of favourites being recommended by the bogus political groupings. These are called Spitzencandidaten, and I hope you have noticed that the language for important things has changed from French to German, whilst everyone actually speaks English to each other.
Anyway, the two Spitzencandidaten put up by the main parties were Martin Schulz, currently leader of the Parliament and a leftish integrationist, and Jean-Claude Juncker, former Luxembourger Prime Minister and a rightish integrationist. No one, it appears, likes Schulz (Berlusconi once said he would be suitable in a film about Nazi Germany as a concentration camp guard) and Mrs Merkel favours Juncker.
To appreciate this you have to try to get into the mindset of these people. They believe in the 'European Project' absolutely and to the exclusion of all else. That is to say they believe that the nation state is an outdated institution and that government, to protect the Union against silliness by the electorate, should be by the people who know how to do it.
Cameron appears on the surface to be cutting up rough. He has said that Juncker is such a federalist that his appointment as Commission President could cause the bringing forward of the British Referendum and an early exit from the EU.
Two other pieces of information I should give you: one is that the Parliament reserved the right itself to elect the Commission President. The other is that Tony Blair said in an interview that he would like to 'help' Europe and is next week making a speech in Germany on how he would like to see Europe in the future. In William Hague's terms he is 'on manoeuvres'.
Is Cameron trying to push Blair into the job? Personally I view the possibility with horror: at least we know what Juncker is about; Blair might believe one thing or another or nothing and still say something different.
Better the devil you know....
But if you have a modest concern about how your life is being managed by other people, consider this. The European Parliament is the institution which is put forward as being democratic, even though its little rules mean that anyone who is against the whole business is never allowed to speak for more than one minute (sometimes two). The Parliament decided that it wanted a bit of influence over the Head of the Commission, so it introduced the concept of favourites being recommended by the bogus political groupings. These are called Spitzencandidaten, and I hope you have noticed that the language for important things has changed from French to German, whilst everyone actually speaks English to each other.
Anyway, the two Spitzencandidaten put up by the main parties were Martin Schulz, currently leader of the Parliament and a leftish integrationist, and Jean-Claude Juncker, former Luxembourger Prime Minister and a rightish integrationist. No one, it appears, likes Schulz (Berlusconi once said he would be suitable in a film about Nazi Germany as a concentration camp guard) and Mrs Merkel favours Juncker.
To appreciate this you have to try to get into the mindset of these people. They believe in the 'European Project' absolutely and to the exclusion of all else. That is to say they believe that the nation state is an outdated institution and that government, to protect the Union against silliness by the electorate, should be by the people who know how to do it.
Cameron appears on the surface to be cutting up rough. He has said that Juncker is such a federalist that his appointment as Commission President could cause the bringing forward of the British Referendum and an early exit from the EU.
Two other pieces of information I should give you: one is that the Parliament reserved the right itself to elect the Commission President. The other is that Tony Blair said in an interview that he would like to 'help' Europe and is next week making a speech in Germany on how he would like to see Europe in the future. In William Hague's terms he is 'on manoeuvres'.
Is Cameron trying to push Blair into the job? Personally I view the possibility with horror: at least we know what Juncker is about; Blair might believe one thing or another or nothing and still say something different.
Better the devil you know....
27 May, 2014
See what it is yet?
I wonder if it was entirely appropriate for Rolf Harris to perform, at his trial, 'Jake the Peg (with the extra leg)'.
Elections
So,did the earth move for you? Earthquake is one of the commoner descriptions of the election results as Nigel Farage and Marine Le Pen sweep all before them, but....I'm not so sure. A Euro election is a good time for a protest but that doesn't mean the voter won't return to type, certainly in France. A few years ago the socialist vote collapsed but left-wingers were seen going into the poling booths holding their noses as they voted for Chirac in order to keep out Marine's father, Jean-Marie.
The British voter is a little different. I remember people saying to me that they wouldn't vote for me because I couldn't win. Farage's success this time will make more people think it is OK to vote for him.
But the mainstream politicians are wondering what they should do now. I think it is easy to guess what will happen in Europe: they will ignore the vote, as they always do. They will tell themselves that what the silly little people really meant was that they wanted more Europe.
In the UK there may be some small change. Ed Miliband might now endorse the idea of a referendum, although I think he was Always going to do that anyway. What would be a breakthrough is if Cameron announced that in the event of his renegotiations not working he would campaign to leave. We'll see.
I have a piece in the Commentator about the European results. Read it; it's free.
The British voter is a little different. I remember people saying to me that they wouldn't vote for me because I couldn't win. Farage's success this time will make more people think it is OK to vote for him.
But the mainstream politicians are wondering what they should do now. I think it is easy to guess what will happen in Europe: they will ignore the vote, as they always do. They will tell themselves that what the silly little people really meant was that they wanted more Europe.
In the UK there may be some small change. Ed Miliband might now endorse the idea of a referendum, although I think he was Always going to do that anyway. What would be a breakthrough is if Cameron announced that in the event of his renegotiations not working he would campaign to leave. We'll see.
I have a piece in the Commentator about the European results. Read it; it's free.
Still Life
I must say I find it strange that in the 21st century the cure for fractured vertebrae is to lie still in the hope that they heal up. There is apparently an alternative of injecting plastic into the broken bits but that seems unappealing.
Anyone who finds themselves dependent on rolling news broadcasts will immediately notice how they seize on a topic and won't let go, however uninteresting it becomes, like a puppy with an old shoe it has found. One of the worst of these was the Sky News coverage of the Oscar Pretorius trial, a minute-by-minute coverage of tedious legalisms and nothing serious (we know he shot her, the question is why).
Then we had the Ukraine, of course, and Prince Charles saying Putin was behaving like Hitler. Charles was wrong, of course: firstly he should have kept his mouth shut (he surely can't seriously have thought a woman he had just met would respect 'a private conversation'?). He was also wrong in that the crisis was caused by Hermann van Rompuy and Baroness Ashton's naive foreign policy, not by President Putin.
And there was Astra Zeneca. In the first place it would be hard to describe this as a British Company: the great majority of its employees work in other countries, the great majority of its shareholders are foreign institutions, its Chief Executive is French and its Chairman Swedish. Then there is the madness of the Government intervening. I own shares in Astra Zeneca and I don't want the likes of John 'Vince' Cable telling me who I can sell them to. Supposing a Russian oligarch offered you an excellent price for your house, and then this whining ballroom dancer appears and says you can't sell to him because he may be horrid. B****r off!, is what I say.
Then there were the elections....
Anyone who finds themselves dependent on rolling news broadcasts will immediately notice how they seize on a topic and won't let go, however uninteresting it becomes, like a puppy with an old shoe it has found. One of the worst of these was the Sky News coverage of the Oscar Pretorius trial, a minute-by-minute coverage of tedious legalisms and nothing serious (we know he shot her, the question is why).
Then we had the Ukraine, of course, and Prince Charles saying Putin was behaving like Hitler. Charles was wrong, of course: firstly he should have kept his mouth shut (he surely can't seriously have thought a woman he had just met would respect 'a private conversation'?). He was also wrong in that the crisis was caused by Hermann van Rompuy and Baroness Ashton's naive foreign policy, not by President Putin.
And there was Astra Zeneca. In the first place it would be hard to describe this as a British Company: the great majority of its employees work in other countries, the great majority of its shareholders are foreign institutions, its Chief Executive is French and its Chairman Swedish. Then there is the madness of the Government intervening. I own shares in Astra Zeneca and I don't want the likes of John 'Vince' Cable telling me who I can sell them to. Supposing a Russian oligarch offered you an excellent price for your house, and then this whining ballroom dancer appears and says you can't sell to him because he may be horrid. B****r off!, is what I say.
Then there were the elections....
14 May, 2014
High score
My latest kitchen accident was higher scoring than I thought: 2 fractured vertebrae and I must lie still for a bit.
I am resolving for a life on takeaways but the kitchen bug will probably get me again. Hey-ho
I am resolving for a life on takeaways but the kitchen bug will probably get me again. Hey-ho
10 May, 2014
This time?
It is the Eurovision song contest again (Hurray!) and this year rather than offering a 1960s loser Britain's candidate will be Molly Smitten-Downes, who must have had a tough time at school with a name like that.
To save you having to watch the whole affair, here it is.
Still, I expect she's a nice girl underneath all that cliché
To save you having to watch the whole affair, here it is.
Still, I expect she's a nice girl underneath all that cliché
Our boys
There are outraged reports in today's press that British soldiers have been photographed next to dead Taliban in Afghanistan.
I don't know who the Left think we are sending out to Afghanistan - perhaps they imagine it was an army of Guardian reading social workers. In fact it was thousands of tough young lads, whom our schools system has largely neglected, who are trained for fighting and told that their job is to kill Her Majesty's enemies.
If we don't want this type of person representing Britain abroad, we shouldn't send them.
I don't know who the Left think we are sending out to Afghanistan - perhaps they imagine it was an army of Guardian reading social workers. In fact it was thousands of tough young lads, whom our schools system has largely neglected, who are trained for fighting and told that their job is to kill Her Majesty's enemies.
If we don't want this type of person representing Britain abroad, we shouldn't send them.
The r-word
One of the silliest pieces of news has been the story of Jeremy Clarkson and the n-word. Incidentally, don't you find this terminology daft? I first heard it from George H Bush (Bush père) referring to the F-word. It doesn't seem to convey meaning in a straightforward way.
Anyway, Clarkson previously had referred to an Asian gentleman as a 'slope' (the s-word, or perhaps one of the s-words, this is difficult). For myself I shouldn't have known this was slang for an Easterner had not some daft woman threatened to sue.
Now, apparently in an out-take, Clarkson recited the Eeny.meeny-miny-mo tag, mumbling the n-word, but this was not enough. So he's a racist.
Surely this is pretty low-level offensive, indeed not much more than silly. Why didn't the BBC edit it out?
Contrary to newspaper reports, the BBC will not fire Clarkson. The reason is that the licence fee goes towards making the programmes. There is some other income from sale of material, much of which is provided by Clarkson, and this pays for the chauffeur driven cars and decent lunches of the executives. There would be uproar, not just among the general public, if they got rid of him.
I am just wondering if our problem isn't over-use of the n-word, but of the r-word?
Anyway, Clarkson previously had referred to an Asian gentleman as a 'slope' (the s-word, or perhaps one of the s-words, this is difficult). For myself I shouldn't have known this was slang for an Easterner had not some daft woman threatened to sue.
Now, apparently in an out-take, Clarkson recited the Eeny.meeny-miny-mo tag, mumbling the n-word, but this was not enough. So he's a racist.
Surely this is pretty low-level offensive, indeed not much more than silly. Why didn't the BBC edit it out?
Contrary to newspaper reports, the BBC will not fire Clarkson. The reason is that the licence fee goes towards making the programmes. There is some other income from sale of material, much of which is provided by Clarkson, and this pays for the chauffeur driven cars and decent lunches of the executives. There would be uproar, not just among the general public, if they got rid of him.
I am just wondering if our problem isn't over-use of the n-word, but of the r-word?
The Master
I generally regard myself as a modest type, but on one issue I will brook no dissent. When it comes to kitchen accidents no one comes close.
Over the years I have suffered sprains, bruises, dropped stuff on my feet, got hot oil, water or fat in most anatomical locations and of course got burns everywhere. My culinary career has been tantamount to self-harm.
My latest contribution was to put a pan of hot oil on the cooker such that it could not balance. As I noticed it falling towards me, with great presence of mind I leaped backwards. During this manoeuvre a shoe came off, I slipped and lost my footing and landed heavily on the terracotta floor on my backside, sliding along until my head struck a solid chestnut door.
Don't try this at home, children.
In over a week of enforced misery, lying on my front, under heavy medication, I have absorbed the news stories without being able to comment or even, as is my usual practice, throw things at the television.
I am now heading for the land of the living, if not for civility.
Over the years I have suffered sprains, bruises, dropped stuff on my feet, got hot oil, water or fat in most anatomical locations and of course got burns everywhere. My culinary career has been tantamount to self-harm.
My latest contribution was to put a pan of hot oil on the cooker such that it could not balance. As I noticed it falling towards me, with great presence of mind I leaped backwards. During this manoeuvre a shoe came off, I slipped and lost my footing and landed heavily on the terracotta floor on my backside, sliding along until my head struck a solid chestnut door.
Don't try this at home, children.
In over a week of enforced misery, lying on my front, under heavy medication, I have absorbed the news stories without being able to comment or even, as is my usual practice, throw things at the television.
I am now heading for the land of the living, if not for civility.
01 May, 2014
The LoUC
Interesting news for fans of the Law of Unintended Consequences.
Europe doesn't allow the death penalty, but is good at making the drugs to execute criminals in America.
Europe banned the export of these drugs, because of the use the Americans were putting them to.
Since the Americans have had to find other drugs, the average execution has taken a lot longer, perhaps 20 minutes more, and, as we saw in Oklahoma the other day, the prisoner can die in pain.
What is the answer to this (other than the USA banning the Death penalty, which is unlikely)?
It is for an American company to buy the companies which make the drugs, then manufacture them in the USA. Obama should tell Pfizer to add them to its shopping list.
Europe doesn't allow the death penalty, but is good at making the drugs to execute criminals in America.
Europe banned the export of these drugs, because of the use the Americans were putting them to.
Since the Americans have had to find other drugs, the average execution has taken a lot longer, perhaps 20 minutes more, and, as we saw in Oklahoma the other day, the prisoner can die in pain.
What is the answer to this (other than the USA banning the Death penalty, which is unlikely)?
It is for an American company to buy the companies which make the drugs, then manufacture them in the USA. Obama should tell Pfizer to add them to its shopping list.
28 April, 2014
More racism
The media have not been shy of telling us that the UK Independence Party has had a bad week, being referred to everywhere now as 'racist'.
UKIP promptly went on to top the opinion polls, being now expected to come first in the European Elections.
They must be doing something right, mustn't they?
I sometimes wonder how it would be if the whole country, other than a few bien pensant lefties in London, turned out to be, in their terms, 'racist'. It reminds me of that East German politician who said 'the people have lost the trust of the state'. These people would be writing their bilious articles and displaying their high blood pressure on television while the rest of us ignored them and got on with being utterly horrid, in our own way.
There would be two separate realities, one for the media classes and one for the rest of us. Indeed, perhaps it is already like that.
Quite interesting.
UKIP promptly went on to top the opinion polls, being now expected to come first in the European Elections.
They must be doing something right, mustn't they?
I sometimes wonder how it would be if the whole country, other than a few bien pensant lefties in London, turned out to be, in their terms, 'racist'. It reminds me of that East German politician who said 'the people have lost the trust of the state'. These people would be writing their bilious articles and displaying their high blood pressure on television while the rest of us ignored them and got on with being utterly horrid, in our own way.
There would be two separate realities, one for the media classes and one for the rest of us. Indeed, perhaps it is already like that.
Quite interesting.
27 April, 2014
The men in charge
I often think back to the time the Glazer family bought Manchester United. Hundreds of supporters paraded at the stadium with banners saying 'Manchester United is not for sale'.
But of course it was: it was quoted on the stock Exchange which is an invitation to buy or sell the shares.
Now they are getting a new manager. The media have been having earnest discussions with former players and heads of fan clubs 'So, Jim, the man the fans want is....'
Of course it is completely irrelevant who the fans want. Manchester wanted to hold on to the previous manager until they had confirmed a replacement but the Stock Exchange rules didn't allow this: if there are rumours circulating you have to deal with them publicly.
Equally, the reason the interim manager and former player, Ryan Giggs, won't get the job is that the investors probably haven't heard of him as a manager. They will require someone who has managed a team to win international tournaments.
All the fans are required to do is traipse through the gate every Saturday and buy the shirts.
But of course it was: it was quoted on the stock Exchange which is an invitation to buy or sell the shares.
Now they are getting a new manager. The media have been having earnest discussions with former players and heads of fan clubs 'So, Jim, the man the fans want is....'
Of course it is completely irrelevant who the fans want. Manchester wanted to hold on to the previous manager until they had confirmed a replacement but the Stock Exchange rules didn't allow this: if there are rumours circulating you have to deal with them publicly.
Equally, the reason the interim manager and former player, Ryan Giggs, won't get the job is that the investors probably haven't heard of him as a manager. They will require someone who has managed a team to win international tournaments.
All the fans are required to do is traipse through the gate every Saturday and buy the shirts.
Honour
Chung Hong-won, Prime Minister of S. Korea, has resigned over the ferry disaster.
He was not captain of the ship, he did not write the rules for conduct of a ship in open waters, it was not he who failed to give the order to abandon the vessel.
But it was indeed a disaster, he was the man at the top, and he has quit, like a gentleman. He bowed to the people he served.
I do hope some British and European politicians have been following this story.
He was not captain of the ship, he did not write the rules for conduct of a ship in open waters, it was not he who failed to give the order to abandon the vessel.
But it was indeed a disaster, he was the man at the top, and he has quit, like a gentleman. He bowed to the people he served.
I do hope some British and European politicians have been following this story.
26 April, 2014
Ukraine; the next step
Let me explain, however, how there could be an end.
As I have pointed out, Russian aggression was the likely outcome of Europe's wooing of Ukraine. A child could have seen that. Putin carefully cultivates his image as a tough guy, but it is not purely for his image. If the former Soviet states on the periphery of Russia know that he means business they won't step out of line. He has to be able to rattle his sabre at America and Europe.
So instead of more sanctions, which will not harm America but which will do lasting damage to Europe, let Putin win something. Back down a bit, concede a little so he has something to show for it all: not just the man who lost Western Ukraine but the man who stood up to the West.
That way there is a chance of peace.
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