LibDems

So, Sir Ming has suddenly found himself with a knife between his shoulder blades. It can happen. He seemed like a nice old codger, although I couldn't have voted for him myself, having a prejudice against people who can't pronounce their own names (his is Menzies). I also have a prejudice against people who don't use their own names, like Alexander 'Boris' Johnson.

They will probably elect Nick Clegg, who is seen as very much the coming thing, but my view, for what it's worth, is that the only one of them who talks any sense is Vince Cable. That presumably will preclude his even standing. I should also mention that his name is in fact John. What is it with these people?

This will be watched closely in the other two parties. The Conservative revival, to seven points ahead of Labour in the polls, has come almost entirely at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. And no one knows better than David Cameron what a transformation in party fortunes can be brought about by a new, young, personable leader.

Rugger

The Telegraph says we are sending more supporters to the Stade de France for tonight's match than we had soldiers at Waterloo. I'm not sure we can expect much help from the Germans this time, though.

Good luck to our chaps

Government Figures

Imagine any sort of organisation which has to account to members for where the money has gone - it might be a company or partnership, a golf club or the Church Fete. What would you expect to receive? As a very minimum, I should have thought, how much money came in (and where it came from) and how much went out (and where it went). And there are laws governing exactly this, in every aspect of life except government. Alastair Darling's statement, the Comprehensive Spending Review (or perhaps Revue since it has been a bit of an act) takes a long long time to get through (and costs £54) and really leaves you none the wiser. The last chancellor who gave both income and expenditure statements at the same time was Norman Lamont, but his were done on different bases anyway and so worthless. The only thing you can be certain of is that you will be kept in the dark.

What we do know is that growth appears to be slowing and that both the government deficit and the borrowing levels are right at the top of where they should be. Odd, this: Gordon Brown used to state clearly that government finances should be balanced over the economic cycle. This means running a deficit when times are bad and a surplus when they are good. To keep to this, Gordon even changed the definition of the economic cycle a while back, but even so he appears to have broken his own rule: things have been booming (he never tires of telling us so) and so we should be in surplus. But we're not.

What this means is that even if the government squeezes its revised figures into its revised definition of the economic cycle, we have no leeway. The extra money for education had to come from borrowings. So we have nothing left to fall back on if times get harder.

And times are getting harder. Already people are talking about a drop in house prices. This will make homeowners less free with their money, and they are in any case up to their ears in debt, so spending will fall, unemployment will begin to rise again and increased welfare payments will test the government's finances further. When Brown was riding high on the back of the previous government's prudence he often used to lecture us and his foreign counterparts on exactly this: 'the costs of economic failure'. Now his chickens are coming home to roost. He said there will be no spending without reform but he has poured money into unreformed public services, which are still awful; all that has happened is salaries have risen, Labour voting staff have been taken on.

It's time to tighten our belts; and Brown must fight an election in 2 years or so. He must be hoping we all have short memories. But I think he will be bitterly regretting his timidity about going to the country this Autumn.

Thank you, Darling

Meanwhile Alastair Darling 'fesses up. He admits that he has a mortgage with Northern Rock - which I described in an earlier post as a bank with Labour Party connections. What we don't know (yet) is if he had any savings with them - covered by the 100% guarantee from us taxpayers - or if he had the sense to put them somewhere safer.

Well Clemente?

Still waiting for the detailed denial from Mr Mastella

Clemente Mastella

See my blogs about Lato B and the F word, and Outrage of Sept 27th.

I have received a comment 'This is not true' which I have now identified as coming from Mr Mastella.

If he would like to write a detailed refutation of the allegations I have made I should be only too happy to publish it on this blog.

Bottle

The word appears in every newspaper today (as a matter of fact it should be 'bottled out' or 'lost his bottle', the term perhaps deriving from the older 'no bottle' as in the American 'no cigar' meaning no good, or perhaps the rhyming slang 'bottle and glass'. But this is no time for pedantry). Even the Labour supporting papers are giving Gordon Brown a hard time. Something big has happened this weekend. As Andrew Rawnsley writes in the Guardian, the thing almost everyone thought they knew about Gordon was that he was a mastermind at politics. He has now lost this and his reputation as a leader in the space of a few hours.

Cameron has won a famous victory; almost no one believed the Tories could have won an election whereas in 2009 (Brown will look an even bigger fool if he goes in 2008) they might well.

Now the rest of us can get on with looking at whether there will be a financial crisis and the Tories can get on with exposing the Government's failings.

Paddington

The Times has suggested he must be our most famous Peruvian immigrant (forgetting Joan Collins' husband Percy and Mario Vargas Llosa)

but can't people see? Or is this a nationwide conspiracy? 'Paddington' is pictured with a jar of Marmite, when everyone knows he lives off marmalade sandwiches. This is a fake, a base, cunning creature taking advantage of the weak immigration laws to impersonate a well known and much respected figure. There must be public outrage, steps must be taken.......

UKIP

I am one of the founders of UKIP and stood for them in the 1992 Election (when we were called the Anti-Federalist League) and the 1994 Euro Election. I recruited Nigel Farage to the party, in a pub in Wiltshire. So I wish them well even though I no longer take any part in the Party. I believe the EU to be an expensive, corrupt, undemocratic shambles and have no doubt whatsoever that we would be better off democratically and financially out of it.

But UKIP has had its problems: internal party bickering, some pretty dodgy characters as candidates, and a bit too much noise on immigration (if this is going to be an election platform, and there is no reason why it shouldn't be, you have to control the language used, as David Cameron showed so well at the Tory Conference).

There are signs now that it is getting out of the rut. Nigel Farage is a good leader and trenchant speaker, the funding crisis shows signs of being behind it, and the immigration verbiage seems to be under control (5-year moratorium on economic migrants). Most people agree with them, if not on actually leaving the EU, on the euro and the constitution.

And the recent news is that Marta Andreasen, the whistle blower who was fired for exposing EU corruption, to the shame of Lord Kinnock and his appalling wife, will be the new Treasurer. Short of having your accounts signed off by the Governor of the Central Bank (and as a matter of fact I have my doubts about Mr Trichet) you could hardly do better. Is this a renaissance for UKIP? I hope so, if only to keep the other parties honest about Europe.

Election fever (2)

So..... what do we know?

Before the Tory conference it seemed certain that Gordon would call an election and that he would win it. The Tories just weren't ready and there were doubts about Cameron's leadership. After the Tory conference there has been a Cameron bounce and the Tory Party has seemed remarkably united.

Let me say now that if Cameron has pulled this off, giving his party more time to get its act together, he will have scored a remarkable political coup. And a lot of the credit must go to George Osborne, who is the election co-ordinator and also shadow chancellor: it seems from polls that what has really swayed the voters has been the proffered reduction in inheritance tax. He may look and talk like an irritating 12 year old but there seems to be some sense in him.

But I've said before, in my view Brown would be mad not to go to the country now, if only for the reason that things are going to get a lot worse. The British middle classes can put up with a lot but not the value of their houses going down. This is one of the things that did for Major and it is enough to finish Gordon Brown. And Brown knows what it happening: who better?

Total UK household debt was 164 per cent of GDP at the end of 2006. In the USA, widely regarded by international commentators as up to its ears in debt, it was only 140 per cent. If the present financial crisis brings something in the way of a slowdown - not even a serious recession - we are in for trouble. Don't forget the people who have been borrowing 100% of the value of their houses on 4 times or more their salary. They will be in negative equity, and those who lose their jobs will be bankrupt. They will vote accordingly.

At the first sign of recession the Bank of England will reverse its upward leaning on interest rates (almost everyone thought they would rise one more time to 6pct. Now nobody thinks that) and drop them gradually. But if the housing market has already suffered the jitters reduced interest rates will not immediately work through into house prices - fewer people will be buying or selling. The pound will fall and there might - in 9-18months - be an export led recovery. And this is not fancy: lenders are already tightening credit conditions and laying off staff. Many people in the City are forecasting a 20% drop in house prices.

A pick-up in 9-18 months. Now Gordon has to call an election by Spring 2010, and usually the press start jeering after four years of a government - Spring 2009. The timing looks bad for Gordon.

All this assumes that the Tories can keep united and learn that when confronted with an open goal you have to kick the ball in (too many cock-ups have passed without comment from camp Cameron over the last year). But Gordon will see that Cameron has learned how to keep the traditional conservatives in order - offer a tax cut. The press will be against him over this and over the EU Constitution and his chances could be slim.

He ought to go now while there is still a chance.

The Post Office

The service is poor, and far too expensive, the offices are a disgrace, the staff are lazy and the unions venal. If there is an election thousands could be disenfranchised by this shambles.

Incredibly, we sanction a monopoly on all letters costing under a pound. It's high time we took it away, sold the Post Office off in bits and exposed it to competition.

Election fever

Ben Brogan, one of the most astute and well-informed political journos, has come out saying there won't be an election.

This is all getting quite exciting.

Obit

Macmillan once said (I'm not sure the quote should be attributed to him, the old fraud probably copied it) that each morning he looked at the obituaries column in the Times and if his name was not in it he got up.

I was slightly bleary early this morning when I saw the obit for Tom Hodges. But I can assure my readers that after a series of diagnostic tests at least some life has been found. The late gentleman appears to have been a book buyer for WH Smith.

Cameron

Cameron's speech seems to have gone down well. He seemed relaxed and someone saw his chief publicist sipping a drink in the bar at 10pm the previous night, which suggests the whole team were pretty laid back.

One thing no one has commented on is that as Cameron was saying that he wanted his three children to go to state schools the camera panned to his wife Samantha. She looked appalled.

Party Conferences

David Aaronovitch, writing in the Times a couple of days ago (HERE) managed to get all grumpy about the Party Conference Season and even seemed to regret the passing of Tony Blair ‘this has been a bad fortnight and I am now wondering whether the era of flawed statesmen hasn’t given way to the tyranny of the parish populists’.

I don’t really recall this era of statesmen, flawed or otherwise (it certainly didn’t include Blair, who used to say whatever his audience wanted to hear, sometimes turning 180 degrees within 24 hours if the audience was different, and all irrespective of what he in any case intended to do).

When I used to attend party conferences many years ago I saw them as a way of stirring up the faithful, often to Orwellian levels of hysteria. ‘You will hear a lot about consensus politics’ said Margaret Thatcher, ‘I believe there is a consensus when everybody agrees with me’. How we cheered.

Nowadays I look at Party Conferences with the cold eye of a Kremlinologist. So here is my assessment. The first two conferences were about positioning.

Ming Campbell of the Liberal Democrats made a better speech than anybody expected him to, portraying his grey hairs as a positive factor, but this did no more than stave off open rebellion. On occasions the Lib Dems have had some bite, with the extra penny tax to pay for education, proportional representation, the environment, the slitty-eyed sincerity of Paddy Ashdown. Nowadays they just seem to be an alternative party and the more meat the two majors give us the less well they will do. I expect them to lose several seats if the General Election is this year. 4/10 for Ming.

The Labour Conference was about Gordon Brown and nothing else. He didn’t even mention David Cameron and the Conservatives but gave us a tour de force of bluster and jingoism. Much of it had been already used by Bill Clinton but nobody really minded. For those who believe this is a time for strong leadership (and there are many) this will have gone well. Brown finishes his first 100 days and his first conference as leader looking immeasurably strong, his open arms welcoming everyone into the Big Brown Tent (for this is no longer really about Labour new or old). 8/10.

I have just heard David Cameron, in what must be the most important speech of his career and certainly the most important of the Conference Season. He announced at the start that he was speaking without notes (better, surely, to let everyone notice it for themselves?) and to his credit didn’t seem nervous. There were times when I thought he was drifting, and I was scoring him 6/10, but he said ‘at least it’s me’ and it was: a fairly eloquent tour d’horizon of what he is about. I particularly liked his repeated: ‘we can’t succeed unless we understand why Labour has failed.’ Cameron is about supporting the family, individual empowerment and making public services accountable to the people. I’m not sure how this plays in Middle England: I have a feeling it will be acceptable only if people are convinced the traditional state-directed provision of services has broken down. But Cameron is coherent and came across as warm and likeable. I was scoring him 8/10 by the end.

All the Tories have offered in terms of meat is cuts in stamp duty and inheritance tax. To be fair they can’t really talk about income tax and can’t get into an auction on public services. In my view it will be just enough to make the party faithful row in behind their leader. The other things people will remember at Election Day are no ID cards, a limit to immigration (carefully phrased without xenophobia by Cameron, far better than the Tories usually manage) and a Referendum on the European Constitution. This, with The Sun (SEE THIS) on their side just might be enough to stop Gordon calling an election. I still think he should but we shall see.

Vinification

We have finally put the wine to bed. After crushing

fermentation - during which the wine bubbles frantically and the fermenting tank is hot - the new wine has to be drawn off the skins and pips which have been floating around in it, and these are then pressed in a traditional wine press to get the maximum colour and flavour out

The pressed skins are then taken to a secret location

boiled up and distilled to make grappa

The wine is strong and dark this year but in smaller quantities than usual. It will now settle for a few months while we get ready for the chestnut festival and the olive picking

Lato-B we reveal all

Further to my post on the Lato-B imbroglio, whilst selflessly seeking out all the news for my readers I do confine myself to the quality press


















Corriere della Sera, one of Italy's most serious newspapers, anxious to keep its readership informed..




















under the heading 'No al Voyeurismo'














managed to find a couple of snaps..

John Bercow

Now here's a strange story. Mr Bercow is a short, noisy, self-important man who was for quite some time a firebrand of the right. Then he met a girl, of leftish tendencies, got married and went wet. In fact he went very wet indeed, with the speed and totality of a Pauline conversion.

Soon Bercow's name became whispered as a possible defector to New Labour and he accepts a job from Gordon Brown. Speculation reaches fever pitch as Labour insiders whisper there will be a further couple of defections during the conference season.

Then we learn from Conservative Home that he has been readopted by his constituency.

So, the good Conservatives of Buckingham have decided that a man with will-o'-the-wisp political views, who has accepted a job from the Labour Party (showing him to be either dishonest or incredibly naive) is the best person to represent them.

It defies belief. Really, I sometimes think these people are determined not to form a government.

General Election

I think Gordon Brown would be mad not to call an election. Things can only get worse for him:

• the UK is in no position to meet a recession with borrowing so high;
• at the moment, due to clever spin, the people think the Northern Rock debacle was the Bank of England's fault
• house prices may go down next year
• the only way to cover over the European Constitutional mess is to put it in the small print of the manifesto that he'll sign it only if his (unspecified or vague) reservations are met.
• No one has a clue what Cameron is about
• A short election campaign means the Tories' financial advantage is reduced (there are laws about how much you can spend during the campaign)

However there is the nature of the man. On the surface he is a big noisy bully but underneath that a nail-biting ditherer. I wonder if he'll chicken out and go for 2010 when it all just might have blown over?

Outrage

Today an outraged Mr Mastella claims that people are trying to destroy him. For going to a football match! Bliss! Or rather Bless!

No, Clemente, they are trying to destroy you for taking a huge airbus to see a football match and charging it to the taxpayer.

Apparently he once came to a dinner in our village here in Umbria, in an 8-car motorcade, bigger than that President Bush uses.