Cheers Gord

According to the BBC, Jack Straw has pledged his support for Gordon Brown.

So, it's all up with Gordon, then.

Saved for the nation

The last time the Treasury (ie, we the taxpayer) stumped up cash for a painting it was £381,500 to help buy Titian’s ‘the death of Actaeon’ for £1.8m in 1972. Now Actaeon, painted by the same guy, different pose (he cropped up a fair bit in Ovid’s Metamorphoses, which Titian must have liked), is on offer again, this time from the Duke of Sutherland, for the price of £50m, plus another Titian, again for £50m once we’ve swallowed the first. We are advised that these are bargain prices. Indeed, I have a feeling they are – it would imply inflation in artwork of less than 10% p.a. whereas it has gone up quite a bit more than that. But of course if we are never going to sell them the bargain is of less interest. We have to analyse this on a cost-benefit basis.

When I read the first reports it was a question of the National Gallery (which has, I think, 11 Titians) having had them since the war as a centrepiece and keeping them on. The National Gallery has something like 5 million visitors a year (albeit non paying), so it may well be this is not unreasonable: over a period of twenty years it is £1 a go excluding interest to see both. But further investigation tells us that they are in the National Gallery of Scotland, in Edinburgh. The NGS website doesn’t say how many visitors they have but it must be nothing like as many, maybe a million or fewer, and so the cost-benefit analysis equation is greatly altered. If you think this approach a little crude, remember that the alternative is not that the pictures are destroyed, it is that they are on view somewhere other than the UK. It would be easy to grant an export licence only if they were sold to someone who would display them.

Perhaps in these days of cheap foreign travel we should be looking in a different way about ‘saving pictures for the nation’. It would probably cost someone in Wales no more to see the pictures in the Guggenheim than to go to Edinburgh by train and spend the night in an expensive hotel.

I am wary of mentioning the other aspect of them being in Scotland that gives me doubts, but I will. People who yesterday were lauding the achievements of ‘their’ athletes (who were in fact competing for Team GB) now say the pictures must be saved for ‘the nation’, which means the whole of the UK is expected to pay, while the Scots have free prescriptions, no university fees and higher spending per head.

And I would be more comfortable about laying out £100m if I thought we were doing our best to preserve British arts (who else can be expected to do it?): not just in painting but literature, drama, sculpture, music (the National Lottery money goes largely towards funding productions of Italian Opera). A country's first (not only, but first) duty is to promote its own culture.

I don’t want to sound grumpy but I think we should let the Duke of Sutherland sell his pictures, tax him to the full (this must be a capital gain if ever I saw one), and spend that money on something more manageable. Like a museum of the British arts. If we’ve got any left after that we could buy the Raphael he also wants to flog off.

Unless Alex Salmond wants to chip in from the Scottish taxpayer.

The Greatest Polymath

I am always interested in those ‘On this day..’ bits in the newspaper, which turn the reader’s mind this way and that according to the date. Today is the anniversary of Martin Luther King’s ‘I have a dream’ speech (1963); it is the anniversary of the death of St Augustine (430) and of the birth of Johann Wolfgang von Goethe in 1749.

Goethe has always been a bit of a hero of mine, perhaps the most extraordinary polymath who ever lived. Many people know him for his Faust (his own take on a traditional tale, with Faust being redeemed at the end and raised up to Heaven, unlike in Marlowe’s) which was the inspiration for works by Schumann, Gounod, Liszt, Wagner and Mahler. But his literary works included novels, plays, romantic poetry, eroticism and much else. He was the leader of the Sturm und Drang movement, but later went to Italy to clear his head (as so many people do) and collaborated with Schiller in the Weimar Classicist Movement.

But Goethe was also a lawyer, statesman (he was effectively Prime Minister of Weimar), soldier (he fought at the battle of Valmy and the siege of Mainz), natural scientist (his work on plant morphology influenced Darwin, he was the first to prove that the intermaxillary bone existed in all mammals, the mineral goethite is named after him and his Theory of Colour, translated into English, influenced Turner’s painting), and heroic lover, it now appears, of both sexes.

He died aged 82, probably exhausted.

The Bag Carrier

For those of you who don't read Guido's blog (www.order-order.com) I have to repeat this, which was sent to him

"I was one of the lucky BA passengers who got to fly home with the Olympians - an incredible honour. We were thrown off first and after we walked down the steps and past the paparazzi I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the Prime Minister standing in the doorway shaking hands with my fellow normal pasengers. I walked up to him and shook his hand and asked where we went to collect the bags. He was dumbfounded and the wifey minister* standing beside him with the t-shirt said rudely to me "that is the Prime Minister, ask someone inside". It wasn't as though I asked him to carry my bags. She is one ugly cow."

*Tessa Jowell

Bliss. thanks, Guido

Flying

On reflection it seems quite obvious how the mushroom soup leaked. The pressure in the cabin was much lower than the pressure in the soup container.

Over the years cabin pressures have been gradually reduced without consulting the passengers, and who can doubt that in these days of high fuel prices they will be reduced even further (and perhaps already have been).

I would happily pay extra for a flight which had proper cabin pressure; the enhanced comfort and lower soup risk mitigating the environmental effects.

Incidentally a pilot once told me that the way they used to check the fuselage of the plane for leaks was to search for brown stains, where the nicotine had escaped. Alas now that smoking is not allowed....

Bad luck

With all the hassle travellers have to suffer these days, and no liquids to be carried, the experience of passengers on a Ryan Air flight can only be described as extreme bad luck.

It appears that someone had snuck into the plane some mushroom soup which then dripped from an overhead locker on to the head of a passenger. Bad enough, you might think (although not as bad as tomato) but the soup triggered an allergic reaction, forcing the plane to land early.

This seems rather like the mobile phones controversy - supposed to put the plane at risk but no one really believed they did. If there really is a danger from liquids carried on a flight (that they might be explosive, and be detonated by a suicide bomber in the plane) then some official's negligence has put a plane load of passengers at risk. If not....

This seems like a golden opportunity for Health'n'Safety. Was the soup labelled appropriately (may cause allergic reaction above 30,000 ft); how did it leak out?; should 'at soup-risk' passengers be made to wear hats?; should planes fly empty because the whole thing is too damn risky?

We should be told.

US voting

Today is the 88th anniversary of the passing of the 19th Amendment, which gave American women the right to vote.

Whether the Democrats will regret not choosing one as presidential candidate remains to be seen.

Mrs Thatcher

I don't know about anyone else but I am disgusted by the news that Mrs Thatcher's daughter Carol is trying to make money out of describing her mother's dementia.

Margaret Thatcher was a controversial figure and there is now an element of giggling humour, as there was with Ronald Reagan, that the symptoms stretch further back.

I think anyone is entitled to a simple public statement that they are suffering from the disease, and that their family and intimates keep their own counsel.

US Elections

There is much talk of whether Joseph Biden was the right choice for Obama's running mate. It seems to me wrong: he is a figure from the past, whereas Obama portrays himself as the future; he is a pro-choice catholic, which will not deliver much of the catholic vote; he has been derided for copying a speech by Neil Kinnock (himself a politician derided in the UK); his experience of foreign affairs goes against Obama's statement that he didn't need experience because it was all a matter of judgment.

Many are saying he should have chosen Hillary. But apart from the problem that she and her husband would overshadow any campaign, I wonder if she was sounded out about the job and refused: she wants to be president and for that Obama has to lose (if he were re-elected, 2016 would be too late for Hillary).

An interesting difference between US and UK politics is the importance of the party. Hillary, in carrying on long after she had lost, has been disloyal to her party to an extent that would earn her censure in the UK. At the same time the party, if it were the UK, would have seen her as more likely to beat McCain and somehow wangled her selection. Now there is no senior figure in the party to keep her under control until November (her husband won't).

These are difficult times for Obama. I hope his nerves are steady.

Maxwell Brown

Even after 16 years it is hard to forget the late Robert Maxwell. Casting around, desperate for money, he stole the pension funds of his employees and, for whatever good he may have done in his lifetime, he is now remembered as a figure of hate. The comparison with Gordon Brown is irresistible.

Brown has of course already raided the pension funds of the country, leaving millions hard up in their old age, but we now learn that in his desperation for money he has raided the lottery funds as well. Read John Major in today's Sunday Telegraph.

I would remark in passing that history students of the future will discuss how one man, thoroughly nice but far from clever and another, thoroughly clever but far from nice, could both have made such appalling Prime Ministers.

Team Brown

The British Olympic Association has confirmed that the name Team GB came from the oh-so-British Marzena Bogdanowicz. No one seems to have given a stuff whether we got the name of our country right, as long as it sounded good.

Except, perhaps, Gordon Brown. The man has plans for a football team in the 2012 Olympics taken from England, Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland for Team GB - and then he corrected himself with one of those sickening, artificial smiles, and said 'Team UK'.

The business about the football seems to be a mistake, though. The Scots are horrified at the idea and there is a by-election coming up in Fife.

Prague Spring

While Russian soldiers seem reluctant to leave Georgia, we might remember the horror of 40 years ago. It was on the night of 20th August, 1968, that Soviet forces entered Czechoslovakia, ending the period known as the ‘Prague Spring’.

Appointed First Secretary in January 1968, Alexander Dubcek introduced a wave of reforms, principally economic decentralisation and free speech (and incidentally the division of the country into two, the only one of his reforms permitted to last).

It was too much for the Soviets of the Brezhnev era who sent the troops in, removed all liberals from power and limited the right to political comment to those with ‘full political trust’. Dubcek urged his people not to resist and only 72 were killed but it is thought that some 300,000 emigrated. Dubcek is reported to have said ‘they can kill the flowers but they can’t stop the spring.’

On 19th January, 1969 Jan Palak set himself on fire in Wenceslas Square in protest against the suppression of free speech.

This was the first international political event that I can remember and it left its mark on me and perhaps on a whole generation.

Team Bogdanowicz

Today’s Guardian offers a solution to why our Olympics contenders are called Team GB rather than Team UK (there are three from N.Ireland).

‘Mainly because it is considerably easier on the tongue than "the Great Britain Olympics Team", according to the woman behind the brand, Marzena Bogdanowicz. "I think I had the idea in 1996 or 1997," says the BOA's then director of marketing. "I went to the games in 1996 and the logo at the time was just the lion and the rings, but we weren't strong enough as a brand to just be a lion and the rings. So coming back I wanted to find something that was less of a mouthful, and also had that team feel. We looked at the options and came up with Team GB’.

I wonder if they did look at all the options. So there you have it: Team GB sounded good, it was decided by a woman who sounds, dare I say it, not frightfully British.

I’ll ask ‘Team GB’ if they can confirm this.

Team UK

I got a reply from Team GB – the UK Olympics organisation – saying that since 1996 only athletes from sovereign states, such as Jamaica, can compete under their own names so athletes from Gibraltar, the Falkland Islands and so on would have to compete under our name. So changing the name from Team GB to Team UK would not solve the problem. The spokesman – Lauren Sanderson – did not explain how they got the name of the country wrong in the first place. It is the UK which is the internationally recognised sovereign state.

The reason I make a fuss about this is that the difference between the UK and GB is Northern Ireland. GB suggests to foreigners that we have given up Northern Ireland to the Republic. Which we haven’t.

I have invited Team GB to say what they felt gave them the right to drop this diplomatic bombshell.

McCain - against the grain?

In Britain we tend to blame America for a lot of the less desirable change we see and I think most people regard the trivialisation of politics – looks, mannerisms, soundbites - as having inexorably reached us from across the Atlantic (although I wonder if Anthony Eden would have done so well without his good looks).

But I was watching a video of John McCain the other day and he seems to belie this. He seemed short (surely a disqualifier in itself), jowly, old and with a curious high pitched whine of a voice with which he increasingly seems to make out of touch remarks and allow his temper to get the better of him.

Look at Obama, by contrast. Male model good looks, a soaring manly voice, oratory straight out of Churchill and Martin Luther King.

So why isn’t Obama miles ahead in the polls?

Personally I don’t think it is a racial thing; all but a small proportion of Americans seem to have passed that point and probably most of those would be Republicans anyway. True it might take an exceptional black candidate to make the White House but Obama looks exceptional.

And I don’t think it is the economy. The reason I would hesitate to vote for him is his espousal of protectionism, policy which would make the poor poorer. But I think a large proportion of Americans believe in a bit of protectionism.

Is Obama a busted flush? Did he soar so high like Icarus that his fall is as dramatic as his rise? It was inevitable that as the campaign progressed that he would look more human, more normal, but are the voters not prepared to pardon this?

After a murky start with Condoleezza Rice’s presence in Georgia before the recent upheavals, George Bush has looked good: standing up to Russia with rhetoric and with support for Georgia. This will have helped McCain’s campaign. It only needs another such crisis for security and foreign policy – his long suits – to take centre stage.

The Eurozone

Just as we were beginning to feel that America was past the worst, the Eurozone, almost unnoticed, appears to be slipping into recession. In the three months to June the euro-economy contracted by 0.2%. Normally a loosening of monetary restraints would have eased the position but inflation is running at 4% on average (well over 5% in Spain) and lower interest rates are not possible.

Europe’s banks are in an unhealthy state, commodity and food prices are high. Italy is currently paying 0.6% more on its borrowings than Germany. Several countries, but not all, are experiencing collapsing property prices.

This will be the first test of the eurozone since its founding. People will have to tighten their belts, and the Central Bank in Frankfurt looks like an easy scapegoat. The political test will be how evenly the pain is shared.

Ferragosto

The 15th August has been a holiday here since Roman times, when it was a harvest festival. In Italy it is called Ferragosto which from Latin means August holiday. It coincides with the Roman Catholic Feast of the Assumption and is the day when you can guarantee no one in Italy is working, most people taking a holiday either the two weeks before or the two weeks after (or, quite often, the whole month).

It is notorious for sudden unexpected stormy weather and looking at the sky this morning Ferragosto 2008 will live up to its reputation.

North and South

I remember a friend at the UN telling me that some countries – Western Sahara was the example he used – are deemed unviable. This means that they can never earn enough to support themselves and industry will never go there because the lack of population and infrastructure would make any project uneconomic. I found it a terribly depressing thought – a people simply doomed to failure and welfare dependency.

Now, we learn, the same is true of some British cities. Billions have been poured in to northern regions over the years, and the think tank Policy Exchange says, rightly in my view, that it has all been wasted. Liverpool, we are assured by Edwina Currie in the Mail, has lost half its inhabitants in the last half century (normally one wouldn’t believe a word Mrs Currie wrote but in this case she is correct and actually the article is quite good).

The Policy Exchange document draw the rather odd conclusion that the people of northern cities should migrate south, to find work. David Cameron has, correctly, rejected this noisily (he wants the odd MP north of the Midlands at the next general election) but I hope it makes him think a bit. Bribing the north has been going on for years. I remember the car plants at Speke and in Scotland, Grey Areas, Development Areas, Economic Areas, all kinds of things. The new term is Regional Development Areas and since 1999 they have blown £15bn – largely for nothing. The income disparity between north and south has grown.

But if the northern towns are not to be emptied of their brightest and best, leaving an unemployable, welfare dependent rump, we have to do something, and something which does not involve chucking money at the problem. The Taxpayers’ Alliance suggests a reduction in small business tax rates, but whilst this would be welcome I am not sure how much of an incentive it would be. Regional tax holidays tend to attract weaker companies which depart as soon as the holiday runs out.

I think local solutions are the answer to local problems and these northern towns would benefit from localisation of decision making, beginning with directly elected mayors who have control of the business rates. The electorate would soon begin to vote for new thinking, realising, as the Labour Party does not, that the old thinking hasn’t done them any good.

Let him stay

There is a thoughtful piece by David Owen in the Independent saying there ought to be a method of getting rid of the Prime Minister on political grounds between elections.

It ignores the fact that not everyone wants him to go. Her Majesty's Opposition, to name but one.

The Tories should introduce a motion 'This house deplores recent attacks on the Prime Minister and believes he should stay in office until the next general election'.

If would be interesting to see who voted for it.

Predictions

I should say in advance that my prediction for the US Presidential race was that it would be between Giuliani and Clinton. I hesitated therefore to suggest that John Edwards was a likely running mate for Obama and indeed he has fallen at the first morality fence, admitting to an affair (some say fathering a child) while his wife was suffering from cancer, and I should have thought this might well disqualify him.

Here then are my predictions for the Olympics:

Most medals: China
Most disappointed: USA
Best losers: Team GB (or the United Kingdom as we sometimes call it)
Best uniforms: Italy
Most TV cameras and personnel: The BBC
Biggest political losers from a successful games: Tibet
Biggest financial losers : UK
Most popular sport: beach volleyball

In this regard I should say that I once owned some broadcast rights to a minor sport and someone who could be regarded a in a position to know told me that if I wanted it to become an Olympic sport he could give me a telephone number to call and someone would mention a sum of money and give details of a bank account to deposit it in.

Now who is funding synchronised swimming?