Italy ponders life after Silvio

The recent referendums in Italy are being seen, rightly, I think, as a personal defeat for Berlusconi. They were on nuclear power, denationalisation of the water industry, water pricing and Berlusconi’s draft law to allow politicians not to attend court if they are busy. Turnout was high – the first referendum since 1995 to produce a quorum, and 95% of those who voted went against the ruling coalition. In the final stages Berlusconi was reduced to begging people to stay at home so that there wouldn’t be a result.

There is of course a massive commotion here, but one of those commotions where you think the world has changed and then wake up in the morning to find it is business as usual. And indeed the old boy is still there.

So where are we? In the regional elections a couple of weeks ago Berlusconi’s PdL did badly, as did their coalition partners. The court cases continue. Mario Draghi., in a valedictory speech as head of the Central Bank, and new head of the European Central Bank, made a coruscating attack on the government. Things are looking bad for Silvio.

The Economist has an article ‘The man who screwed Italy’. I don’t agree with it: too many people and recently the Economist in particular, try to judge Berlusconi from an Anglo-Saxon Protestant perspective. Italy is neither of those things, but finally the Italians have had enough and Berlusconi will fall far and fast. He has already said he won’t stand for office at the next election. Originally he had wanted to become President. Then he set his sights on becoming some sort of Mentor Minister to a protégé, such as Tremonti, Letta or Alfano. Now it seems that won’t be possible after all. He will soldier on trying to get one of his men into the top job but, like as not, fail.

So what next for Italy? It seems as if this is not a pendulum swing to the left but a movement away from established politics, ironically just as the support for Berlusconi in 1994 was. We shall know next year what will become of it. Historians will, in my view, look back on Berlusconi’s administrations as a series of failed opportunities. He could have reduced the size of government and reduced the debt, but didn’t. He could have reformed working practices and got the economy moving, but didn’t. A hundred things, things which he professed to believe in, were left undone and he has no record to fall back on.

The Italian electorate can be bold, as they were to appoint him in the first place, and it is my hope they will be bold again, appointing competent outsiders. In the meantime, each anxious to get his knife in, the Italians have voted against nuclear power and against privatisation, two decisions I think they will regret.