Nearly right

In the end the earthquake was in Spain.

It turned out the guy did his forecasting according to the alignment of the planets, which are presumably the same for the Spanish.......

Probably as good a method as any other. The problem is now everyone will believe Raffaele Bendandi's predictions, or at least his system (he died in 1979).

Shaking in their boots

There is news that up to a fifth of Romans will take the day off and try to leave the city today. This is due to a prediction made in 1915 that today would see a severe earthquake in the city.

It just goes to show the extraordinary superstition of the Italians, a nation which despite its devotion to the Church, enjoys astrology and fortune telling.

If only we could forecast earthquakes....

Earthquake (3)

250 dead, tens of thousands homeless, 26 villages and upwards of 10,000 buildings destroyed.

The hospital is working (and others are helping), the search for survivors continues despite the aftershocks, one of which, itself the magnitude of a serious earthquake, was felt in Rome and as far north as Emilia Romagna. The water is operating, most places seem to have electricity and there are tents for 14,500 people.

Despite the Italians' reputation for inefficiency, so far my impression is that they have done really well.

Earthquake (2)

For those who wish to help, donations can be made to Caritas Italia direct to their account at UNICREDIT BANCA DI ROMA S.P.A. IBAN IT38 K03002 05206 000401120727 with the heading 'Terremoto Abruzzo'

or by credit card to Tel. +39 06 66177001

L'Aquila's earthquake.

It now seems that 150 people have died and something like 50,000 are homeless after a dramatic earthquake with its epicentre just outside l'Aquila struck at 3.30am on Monday. L'Aquila is a city of about 70,000 people, about the size of Bath, with a university and several schools. The town in its present form was laid out in the 13th century and many of the buildings are just rubble covered over with stucco.

I spoke on a local BBC Radio programme and the presenter said it was hard for the British, who generally do not suffer from earthquakes, to understand the threat, the fear and the reactions. Whilst it is the fourth serious earthquake in 30 years no one can ever get used to it; there are no predictors of the event and no way of estimating what the effects will be. This time there were cracks in walls 50 miles away. The mountain village of Onna was left without a single building standing.

The death tolls in similar strength earthquakes make interesting reading:

1908 86,000 dead
1915 33,000
1968 236
1976 976
1980 2,570
1997 11
2002 28
We are better at getting the wounded out and at treating them. As to the rest we are subject to nature and its incomprehensible forces.

Berlusconi, conscious perhaps of the mistakes Bush made after Katrina, has cancelled a trip to Russia and is throwing resources at this. The area needs its water supply repaired and tens of thousands of temporary homes. Then it needs to rebuild. We shall see how effective the Government is.