30 November, 2010

The World Cup

There is talk that an investigation by British television reporters into alleged corruption in F.I.F.A. (Fédération Internationale de Football Association - why does it have a French name?) may lose Britain the opportunity to stage the World Cup in 2018. You might have thought that they'd be grateful to our chaps for rooting out corruption in their ranks, however no: they don't like being investigated, you see.

Why on earth didn't we think about this at the time of being awarded the Olympics? There is massive corruption in the International Olympic Committee and our journalists, with a bit of pot-stirring, could have saved us billions of pounds and got the thing won by the French.

'You cannot hope to bribe or twist
Thank God! The British journalist
But seeing what the man will do unbribed,
There's no occasion to.

(Humbert Wolfe)

Picasso and the electrician

Call me old fashioned, but I had thought everyone paid their electrician with modern art. What else is there to do with the stuff?

'Rewire the garage, mate? Couldn't do it for less than a Chagall or a small Modigliani sculpture, much as I'd like to'.

29 November, 2010

The Euro

We had the Irish bailout on Sunday night, and it was no surprise, at least to me, that the euro fell against major currencies on Monday morning. The European Commission and the European Central Bank seem to be living in a world of their own.

First, announcing major events on a Sunday night. This is the clearest sign of desperation. Assuage the markets before Tokyo opens, in the hope of a bit of good press. Naive.

Second, they then all sit back and assume the problem has gone away, just as they did with Greece.

The nature of markets is this: if everyone knew, for example, that the dollar was going to fall, you wouldn’t make any money selling it. To make money you have to be the first, and this means constantly testing the accepted structure, just as the markets did against sterling and the lira in 1992 until the markets won and the status quo lost. It may not be tomorrow or next week, but it is clear, now the scare is out there, that the markets will have a tilt at Portugal, Spain, perhaps Italy.

The only way to prevent this is to have a long term plan. I wrote many months ago that the Eurozone either needed a procedure for a country to leave it, or it needed a procedure for allowing a country to default. At present there is neither

Wikileaks

Some quarter of a million US diplomatic cables have been published on the Wikileaks website. I can’t be bothered to look: the news that the Saudis (Sunni Muslims) don’t want the Iranians (Shi’ite Muslims) to have a nuclear bomb is hardly earth shattering. Nor is the information that Mr Sarkozy is thought a bully and Mr Cameron is considered lightweight.


The cautious, correct, conservative press is outraged. Some B-list opinion former on the radio described Mr Assange as a traitor. Here is The Spectator: ‘Just ask yourself a few questions. Will the West be safer if the Saudi leader cannot trust that a conversation he has with a US envoy will remain secret?...’

Let’s deal with this. The diplomatic cables were sent and received, and then the US put them all on to a giant intranet. They were not labelled ‘Top Secret’ but merely ‘Secret’. The number of people who had access to them from this intranet was in excess of 2.5 million. Two and a half million people could look at this information. And yet the USA is shattered, outraged, that one of these 2.5 million leaked the stuff.

So in answer to the question, a Saudi leader is now at least aware that any conversation he has with a US envoy is not going to remain secret, and is going to be far more cautious, and the world is thereby going to be far safer, with this knowledge.

Far from being a traitor, Mr Assange has done the world a favour. Only a couple of years after the USA threatened to stop sharing secrets with Great Britain on the grounds that it couldn’t be trusted, we now find that it has been spraying its – and our – secrets around the ether without the least care. And it is horrified when they become public.

Grow up is what I say.

27 November, 2010

The Met Office

The British Meteorological Office, a largely discredited body ripe for cost savings, has predicted that this year will be the warmest on record. They may be right – a broken clock is right twice a day – but I would point out we are still in November and the snow has arrived earlier than for many years.


The Met Office predicted that 2003 would be the hottest ever (and of course it wasn’t) then that 2007 would be (nope). The hottest year on record is still 1998. Twelve years ago.

As Michael O’Leary of Ryan Air pointed out: " it is absolutely bizarre that the people who can't tell us what the ******* weather is next Tuesday can predict with absolute precision what the ******* global temperatures will be in 100 years' time."

Benefits for all?

Quite a sensible suggestion from lapdancing bar owner Peter Stringfellow about the British winter fuel allowance. He said from his home in Majorca (yes, they are quite happy to send it to pensioners living in Majorca) that he had been trying to give it back without success. He is, of course, a multi-millionaire and doesn’t need it, but they send it to multi-millionaires as well.

The answer, says Stringfellow, is to get you to tick a box saying if you want it. Simple.

Let’s now hear from Mr Duncan Smith.

26 November, 2010

German Conscription

For me it is something from the 1950s: the idea that young people should be forced to serve in the army.

Conscription ended in the USA in 1973 (they had Vietnam) and in Britain in 1960, but it has been kept on in Germany, alone amongst the major European countries.

Military commanders have always thought it was a waste of time training reluctant, unfit recruits and there were serious doubts about whether they would actually fight if the time came. And social liberals like me always believed it was merely a way of keeping the young under control. Now it is to be scrapped, the excellent Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg calling a halt to it by 1st July, 2011.

An intresting statistic is that more than 40% of draftees were turned away on health grounds.

25 November, 2010

Your money in their hands (No.361)

It isn't a new phenomenon; however tough a politician might talk when he is out of office, give him power and he becomes the usual, statist, big government type. They can't resist it.

With Mr Cameron it seems the change has been swifter than with most. He enjoys power and whilst talking about cutting expenditure, can't resist lavishing a little moolah on a pet project.

Cameron's latest idea is to spend several million pounds of the taxpayers' money creating a happiness index. The way to judge this is to guess what will happen to the calculations if they come out wrong, if Mr Cameron's corporatist, eurobureaucracy-friendly, social democracy sucking mish-mash of a government in fact makes us more unhappy (that's certainly the effect it is having on me). The index will quietly disappear.

More likely the creators of the happiness index will decide what is likely to happen and design the index to give a positive result, just as Gordon Brown defined child poverty in terms of it being something he could cure with a simple, planned tax reduction.

They're all the same.
 

24 November, 2010

Royal Wedding

Politicians just can't resist trying to look generous towards us at our expense. When sometimes they give us back some of our own money they make it look as if it were their money being handed out to the people. Mr Cameron's latest fit of pseudo largesse is to grant everyone in Britain a bank holiday for the royal wedding.

People who carp at the £50m cost of this wedding might care to reflect that each day the UK earns around £3.5 bn. Of course you don't have to give up work for a day but most will do so, and of course we don't earn nothing on days when no one goes into work: my bank will still be earning from me even when it is closed by paying next to nothing on  my money; and since people have to eat on a bank holiday they'll buy more food the day before.

It should also be said that since this 'free' holiday comes between Easter Monday and the communist 1st May holiday, many people will decide to make what Italians call the bridge: you can go away for 11 days at a cost of three days' holiday. Indeed, getting away from the televised schlock this is likely to be seems like a good idea.

One paper estimates the total cost to the economy as £5 bn, which makes the £50m look fairly good value.

22 November, 2010

20 years on

It is twenty years today since Mrs Thatcher resigned. It was one of those 'where were you when President Kennedy was shot' moments. For myself I was driving down the M4 motorway and nearly crashed. I hadn't realised the Conservative Party could be so stupid as to ditch a winner, or so nasty. As Charles Moore said, if she was failing she should have been allowed to fail at the ballot box.

Within two years John Major's pro-European policies had brought Britain to its knees. We had to leave the Exchange Rate Mechanism, the pound collapsed and interest rates went through the ceiling. Since then we have had five lame duck years of John Major, the duplicitousness of Tony Blair, the insane spending spree of Gordon Brown and the cheating David Cameron accepting your vote and changing his policies afterwards.

What a crew!

Going off at half cock

Far too much in the media about what the Pope may or may not have said to a German journalist about the use of condoms. Publication date is tomorrow and it might have been better to wait and read the interview. But as usual the press grasped at any sensationalist straw it could. At first it was reported that Benedict was happy about the use of condoms. This was doubted by the BBC's veteran reporter David Willey, who said correctly that such a major change in dogma would hardly be revealed in one of the back pages of the Osservatore Romano (not Osservatero, as the BBC News channel pronounced it).

Then it was reported that he had said condoms were OK under certain circumstances. Now it appears that the circumstances are for sex between homosexuals because it was not interfering with the making of a new life.

Next the old boy will be criticised for discriminating in favour of gays, since they are allowed condoms and heterosexuals not.

A good rule of thumb is that if you don't know what the story is, don't report it.

20 November, 2010

To reign over us?

A lot of hoo-ha in the press today about Prince Charles saying Camilla might become Queen (as his consort).

Most of this is a throwback to the Princess Diana mania which gripped the nation in the couple of years after her death, but which has fortunately died down.

My advice to people who have a problem with this is to go into your nearest primary school and ask the assembled children what the wife of a King is called.

The wee frees

Startling news from Scotland. The Free Church of Scotland has decided to allow music (music!) and hymn singing in its churches.

It reminds me of the story of a ‘wee free’ minister being asked what the Church thought of sex. He replied that on balance they were against it, on the grounds that it might lead to dancing.

19 November, 2010

The House of Lords

Another clutch of semi-celebrities, time servers and political donors are appointed to the ermine. More Conservatives than Labour, of course, because last time there were more Labour than Conservatives. See?

Now there are 700 or so Lords and Ladies, more than there are elected MPs. They have little or no constitutional or moral standing, appointed as they are by politicians. They can't (and shouldn't be able to) override the elected house, so all they can do is make suggestions, a task which could be done by civil servants.

This system desperately needs dragging at least into the last century. I know the government has a lot on its plate but I should have thought it was now urgent.

The only appointment which pleased me was the elevation of former MP Michael Lord, who becomes Lord Lord.

18 November, 2010

Signs of the times (374)

Ian Dale reports that two convicted murderers in America, Edmund Zagorski and Ralph Baze, were seeking a judicial review of Business Secretary Vince Cable's granting of an export licence for sodium thiopental, a drug used in executions.

Expensive business, a judicial review. How are they paying the lawyers? Easy: we grant them legal aid. The taxpayer pays for the foreign murderers and for the defence of the politician.

How could we make a saving here?

Signs of the times

An American couple, Pete and Alisha Arnold, have set up a website www.birthornot.com to ask for readers’ votes as to whether they should abort their unborn child, which is, apparently, perfectly healthy.

They have uploaded scan images to the site. The unborn child has been nicknamed ‘Wiggles’.

In inviting your vote, the site says ‘By voting on whether to continue or abort an actual pregnancy, you are doing so much more then simply telling an elected representative your feelings. You are actually changing something in the real world.’

Currently the vote is in favour of abortion. Mrs Arnold writes: 'I'm not convinced that I want to change the status quo. I feel that as I age I've actually gotten more selfish and set in my ways.

'I'm afraid that I will eventually regret starting a family and "settling down", as they say.’

It might be that the site is some sort of self-publicity, which would itself constitute a sign of the times. There are claims on it that the pro-abortion vote comes from a 'sick humour' website. Or it may be that people are concerned as to what this couple's reproduction might do to the human genetic stock.

Not the accountants

Most papers report that the money men are arriving in Dublin to see what can be done for the Irish economy.

Of course it's not the accountants, it's the politicians. They will decide (in Ireland's interest, of course) what steps should be taken in return for a bailout (which Ireland says it doesn't need).

Here's something that will be on their minds.

Corporation Tax Rates

Germany 30 - 33%
France    33.33%
Ireland    12.5%

So where would you set up a business? But the Irish say firstly that low tax rates are essential for the recovery, and secondly that one of the things that made them change their minds about the Lisbon Treaty (they were told to vote again, if you remember) was the promise that they could set their own levels of taxation.

If an increase in corporation tax is forced on them, the Irish will feel traduced.

Rightly so, in my view.

16 November, 2010

Thoughts on the engagement of Prince William

Er....

Actually this isn’t really going to affect any of us too much, and I guarantee you will be hearing more from the media over the next 6-9 months than you really want or need.

But I do have a couple of thoughts.

Firstly, Miss Middleton is catapulting herself into the spotlight. Not much is at present known about her but that will change. Apparently no one has heard her speak, and it would delight me if she had somehow adopted a Birmingham accent but I think it unlikely (she was born in Reading).

Secondly she is marrying into one of the most dysfunctional families on the planet. Of the Queen’s four children three have been divorced. And the males of the family are famously unable to keep their trousers buttoned up: the Duke of Edinburgh, despite being 89, has a ‘confidant’, Prince Charles married his ‘confidant’. What is the poor girl to expect?

They are marrying in 2011 because the following year will be the Queen’s diamond jubilee, and in April of that year the old dear will be 86. Given the string of occasions when she has been ‘poorly advised’ (which is what we say when she had made a complete fool of herself, see here) it is high time she abdicated. That way Charles would become king, which would make it constitutionally impossible for him to do what he does at the moment (interfering), and Miss Middleton would become Princess of Wales, at the age of 30, which is quite late enough.

Thanks Ma’am, but goodbye.

The future of the euro

Well, what are they going to do?

A look at the recent history of the eurozone does not make happy reading.

When Greece suddenly admitted it was bust it seems Eurozone leaders were caught on the hop. An all embracing package was quickly put together with the Eurozone contributing €440 bn. This was supposed to be so large, particularly with handouts from the IMF, that it acted like America’s ‘Shock and Awe’ military strategy. Two unfortunate things then happened. The first was that Chancellor Merkel had to explain it to the German voters who seem to think - imagine this – that the Greeks are idle, dishonest and overpaid.

The second thing that happened was Ireland. The Irish banks fuelled a property boom and when the bubble burst were insolvent. They had to be guaranteed by the Irish State which is now itself insolvent.

I often complain about the knee-jerk reaction in Europe that any problem can be solved by more regulation. But the first thing a regulator needs to have is market knowledge. In Britain this was held by the Bank of England which spoke regularly to the banks on its patch and knew what was going on in the international markets. That is why it was such a disaster when Gordon Brown replaced it with people who had no idea. What was the Irish Government doing, while its banks piled up their balance sheets with dodgy property lending? What was the European Central Bank doing? They must have had access to the figures – the banks have to publish their accounts. The problem wasn’t that nobody did anything, it is that the people who might have done something didn’t know what was going on.

The coming together of the two problems – Ireland and the German voter – forced people to start admitting the existence of the elephant in the room. I posted about it on Nov 2nd. Merkel needed to reassure her voters and said that of course if there were another bail out the bond holders would have to take a haircut. That meant that a country (Ireland) could be permitted to be actually going bust and not paying its creditors. And it seemed fair: why should investors be allowed to buy high yielding Irish debt confident in the knowledge that those hard working Germans would rescue them if anything went wrong?

But it was something better left unsaid. Investors, naturally, priced Irish debt even higher, because of the risk of not being repaid in full. The Irish borrowing rate went up to 7% when I last posted and upwards to nearly 9%, which Ireland can’t afford to pay, so it is more likely to go bust.

So what will they do, the Irish, the ECB and the Germans?

One problem is that lack of market confidence is contagious. The ECB knows that Portugal, Spain and perhaps Italy are waiting in the wings. Another is that this is going to get worse. German productivity is so much greater than in the peripheral countries that the wealth gap will widen.

Chancellor Merkel said yesterday that ‘If the euro fails, Europe fails’ – somewhat hyperbolic, but it might reassure the markets that there is some determination to resolve this. The only thing which will satisfy the German taxpayer is if failing economies are properly supervised. That means a loss of sovereignty: their budgets will be imposed by the ECB. Ireland doesn’t like the idea, and who can blame them?

So we are in the ridiculous position of countries being forced to accept handouts whether they like it or not, and the creeping shadow of what in truth was always going to happen: monetary union leading to political unification under the hegemony of Germany.

14 November, 2010

Those aircraft carriers

The Italian financial paper Il Sole 24 Ore reports that as part of a budget reduction programme the USA is considering cancelling the Joint Strike Fighter.

This means that not only will our aircraft carriers have no aircraft for ten years, but they won't even have any then.

Perhaps we could borrow something from the Chinese.