Silvio survives

I must say I didn't expect any other result than Silvio Berlusconi surviving the vote of confidence, having lost the vote on the budget. Firstly, Berlusca is a canny operator, secondly he has obtained a surprising amount of loyalty from his colleagues and partners and lastly nobody wants an election right now.

The position remains precarious, however, and this is not good for Italy. His government rests on a knife-edge, and the smallest whim could bring it down: the dogs are sniffing defeat but still nervous to jump in for the kill.

The FT, naively, says that Italy must make reforms and that ideally this would be done by a centre-right government. Let's be blunt: they are not going to be done at all by a left-wing government. The only hope of modernisers is that a new centre-right champion emerges (and right now he would still have to be endorsed by Berlusconi).

Many people seem to think that the President can simply appoint a government of national unity. That is not the case: there would have to be a vote of no confidence lost, then elections which failed to win a majority, then the Presidential appointment for a limited term. It is too much of a gamble. Bossi has proved weak: he should have detached himself from Berlusconi at the peak of his party's influence; instead he has held on too long and looks like going down with the ship.

Italy is in a political, as well as economic, mess. Let's hope for the best, even though we don't know quite what that is. The Italians have been naive, and have avoided difficult decisions, but they deserve better than this.