24 November, 2011

Latest news from the Madhouse

They are all talking in the Eurozone - that's what they do best, other than eating - and the signs are not good. France and the other nations want the European Central Bank to assume responsibility for the crisis - that means, effectively, Germany guaranteeing the debts of the weakest nations - and Germany is, unsurprisingly, not enthusiastic.

Now there are the first signs of the market not much liking Germany either. Yesterday (Wed 23rd) Germany tried to raise €6bn of 10 year debt and there were few takers. Just €3.6bn were sold. This is pretty well unheard of, and puts France's bailout strategy into perspective: ECB bonds or guaranteed paper issued by the EFSF bailout fund, cannot be more creditworthy than German debt - Germany is the best economy in Europe. But the markets are turning up their noses at German Bunds: growth is falling in Germany. This doesn't bode well. Stephanie Flanders of the BBC, an organisation which will stretch credibility to support the euro, says

"In my conversations with analysts, traders and officials I'm finding more and more of them are talking about the end game for the euro"

It must, surely, be getting to the stage where solvent countries realise it would cost less to bail out their own banks who have lent to the insolvent countries, than it would to  bail out the creditors themselves. Equally, the indebted nations must be starting to realise that they are going to be shafted by Germany and France, and it might just as well be at a time of their own choosing.

No comments: