Election Day morning, and though even those of us who have been following the ups and downs still don’t feel the candidates have told us enough, we’re not now going to hear any more (a ripple of applause at the back).
There are just over 4,000 candidates standing in the 650 seats, that is to say on average each constituency has candidates for the three main parties and another three.
There will be some great disappointments – only about three hundred candidates can seriously be confident.
The first exit polls, which are more accurate than the opinion polls, will be published at about 10pm, but even those won’t tell us the result with any accuracy. The rise of Nick Clegg, some are already saying the rise and fall, will have caused a tectonic shift in the relationship between votes and seats: will the LibDems come second in a huge number of constituencies, thus not improving their vote? Will they take seats off Labour, off the Tories, or both?
Another tectonic shift is that it is believed some 20% of votes will be cast by post, thus in advance of any final trend or upheaval.
The result? Every election has a story. In 1974, the first one I voted in, Ted Heath went to the polls on the slogan ‘who runs the country?’ and the electorate said ‘obviously not you, mate’. 1979: Mrs Thatcher, something new. 1983: The Falklands. 1987: Labour still not ready. 1992: it was Kinnock’s to lose and he lost it. 1997: Tony Blair, something new. 2001: Tories still in shock and disarray. 2005: Tories still not ready.
What will be the story of 2010? Many are saying it will be the rise of the third party. I am not so sure. I think the British like their politics Manichaean. I rather suspect the story of 2010 will be the implosion of Labour and a realignment of the left.
We’ll know something, but not everything, tomorrow morning.
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