Berlusconi Redux

Sometimes I think of European politics in the way of a weather forecast: Germany stable with slight rumblings of thunder, France serious thunder, depression, Holland and Belgium (see below) no one has a clue what is going on, Greece – well, you can guess.

But what of Italy? To recap quickly, Berlusconi’s governing People of Liberty coalition (PdL) had essentially three elements: his own Forza Italia grouping, Gianfranco Fini’s former ex-fascist National Alliance (AN) and Umberto Bossi’s Northern League.

Fini, as the natural successor of a 73 year old leader, might have chosen to keep his head down, but he said he could not tolerate Berlusconi making laws to keep himself out of prison and led a breakaway group.

Berlusconi enunciated 5 principles on which he would govern. It was the fifth (shorter trials) which contained the Get out of Jail card. Fini said he would support only those policies contained in the manifesto.

Bossi wanted an election (his party is doing very well in the polls) but Berlusconi went for a vote of no confidence, which he won last night. Out of 620 present, 342 voted for Berlusca, 275 against.

Silvio says that this means his government is stable. Cynics point to the fact that he can only rely on 303 core votes. For the rest he is dependent on Fini’s group.

My guess is that Berlusconi will be able to battle on – what can Fini achieve by calling an election? The future depends on how the economy goes, and it could go either way.