Party Conferences

David Aaronovitch, writing in the Times a couple of days ago (HERE) managed to get all grumpy about the Party Conference Season and even seemed to regret the passing of Tony Blair ‘this has been a bad fortnight and I am now wondering whether the era of flawed statesmen hasn’t given way to the tyranny of the parish populists’.

I don’t really recall this era of statesmen, flawed or otherwise (it certainly didn’t include Blair, who used to say whatever his audience wanted to hear, sometimes turning 180 degrees within 24 hours if the audience was different, and all irrespective of what he in any case intended to do).

When I used to attend party conferences many years ago I saw them as a way of stirring up the faithful, often to Orwellian levels of hysteria. ‘You will hear a lot about consensus politics’ said Margaret Thatcher, ‘I believe there is a consensus when everybody agrees with me’. How we cheered.

Nowadays I look at Party Conferences with the cold eye of a Kremlinologist. So here is my assessment. The first two conferences were about positioning.

Ming Campbell of the Liberal Democrats made a better speech than anybody expected him to, portraying his grey hairs as a positive factor, but this did no more than stave off open rebellion. On occasions the Lib Dems have had some bite, with the extra penny tax to pay for education, proportional representation, the environment, the slitty-eyed sincerity of Paddy Ashdown. Nowadays they just seem to be an alternative party and the more meat the two majors give us the less well they will do. I expect them to lose several seats if the General Election is this year. 4/10 for Ming.

The Labour Conference was about Gordon Brown and nothing else. He didn’t even mention David Cameron and the Conservatives but gave us a tour de force of bluster and jingoism. Much of it had been already used by Bill Clinton but nobody really minded. For those who believe this is a time for strong leadership (and there are many) this will have gone well. Brown finishes his first 100 days and his first conference as leader looking immeasurably strong, his open arms welcoming everyone into the Big Brown Tent (for this is no longer really about Labour new or old). 8/10.

I have just heard David Cameron, in what must be the most important speech of his career and certainly the most important of the Conference Season. He announced at the start that he was speaking without notes (better, surely, to let everyone notice it for themselves?) and to his credit didn’t seem nervous. There were times when I thought he was drifting, and I was scoring him 6/10, but he said ‘at least it’s me’ and it was: a fairly eloquent tour d’horizon of what he is about. I particularly liked his repeated: ‘we can’t succeed unless we understand why Labour has failed.’ Cameron is about supporting the family, individual empowerment and making public services accountable to the people. I’m not sure how this plays in Middle England: I have a feeling it will be acceptable only if people are convinced the traditional state-directed provision of services has broken down. But Cameron is coherent and came across as warm and likeable. I was scoring him 8/10 by the end.

All the Tories have offered in terms of meat is cuts in stamp duty and inheritance tax. To be fair they can’t really talk about income tax and can’t get into an auction on public services. In my view it will be just enough to make the party faithful row in behind their leader. The other things people will remember at Election Day are no ID cards, a limit to immigration (carefully phrased without xenophobia by Cameron, far better than the Tories usually manage) and a Referendum on the European Constitution. This, with The Sun (SEE THIS) on their side just might be enough to stop Gordon calling an election. I still think he should but we shall see.