14 March, 2010

UK Elections (1)


The Liberal Democrats are having their Spring Conference at the moment and their leader, Nick Clegg, addressed them this morning. He had almost lost his voice, which was unfortunate, but his speech seemed in any case lacklustre. A well written speech telegraphs the punchline to the audience, who are on their feet by the time the final words are delivered. Clegg seemed to deliver his big points in an artificially big voice and there was a half second's wait before the applause began. The whole thing seemed belaboured, insufficiently genuine.

I did not see the speech of John 'Vince' Cable, who is the party's darling. Many people seem to love him. For me, the writing doesn't go all the way through.

The LibDems currently have 62 MPs and in my opnion this number will not increase. They are the principal protest vote party. When the election result is assured people have the luxury of voting for them to make sure the two main parties don't feel too comfortable. When the result is squeezed, and the last time was 1992, the vote polarises. Secondly, there are now at least two more serious protests, UKIP and the Greens, and in several constituencies the BNP or the Nationalists. Paradoxically, as the LibDems get closer to holding the balance of power their vote declines.


What they need to do is get away from the idea of being somewhere between the two main parties. They need something of their own (their two main policies of better education and lower taxes for the poorest, whilst sensible, don't really cut it). In my view they should go towards being liberal, as they were a century ago: free trade, less inteference in people's lives, civil liberties.


30 years ago Mrs Thatcher cut this ground from under them. Now they could reclaim it.


But they won't. When all is said and done, they are a party of protest for the left. When the Tories are on form, and we don't yet know if they are, the LibDems can be annihilated.

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