08 May, 2010

UK Elections 20: a marriage made on TV

So, here we are then. Nick Clegg has said that the Conservatives deserve the first inscription on his carte de danse and despite the fact that the incumbent would be constitutionally allowed first shout, Gordon Brown has graciously permitted this (ie not believing it can happen). So let us play the shadchan, or matchmaker, and work out what are the chances for this union.

Easier of the two positions to explain is the Tory Party, mainly because it is the least detailed. The core belief of the Tory Party (many people have said they should ditch the term ‘Tory’ but I think they should ditch the term ‘Conservative’) is that they ought to be in power. Nick Clegg landed a blow when he said they were already measuring up for the curtains in Downing St (silly, though; they already had them on file). Otherwise the Tories are the party of fiscal rectitude (I exclude the period of Anthony Barber’s ‘dash for growth’ in the ‘70s and John Major’s absurd adherence to fixing the currency against the Deutsche Mark) and of doing what the middle classes want. The new intake of MP is younger and less likely to lean towards the unattractive Daily Mail authoritarianism of its predecessors . It’s about ‘doing the right thing’ with a bit of modernity. Oh, and Cameron professes to be a tree-hugger, except when it might cost votes.

The Liberal Democrats are easier to understand and at the same time more eclectic. Over the years, partly because they have had no chance of power, some rather interesting policies have emerged, and these have been in part libertarian. They are against ID cards, believe there should be fewer cameras on the streets; they like the idea of localism and want an elected second chamber.

Against that the LibDems have two authoritarian Big State policies: they favour the European Union and the Euro, and they want to empower the political class at the expense of the electorate by embracing proportional representation.

In the negotiations the Tories can threaten a new election which the LibDems can't afford, but Clegg can threaten to cosy up to Brown. Cameron isn't in such a powerful position that he can take the nice bits of LibDem policy and reject the rest. These votes have to be bought.

Cameron can't really compromise on the euro because he has promised never to join it (unlike Gordon Brown’s ‘Let’s join the euro when the time is right’) and the LibDems don’t want to talk too much about that at the moment, but promises on the House of Lords, evening out the size of the constituencies and a referendum on PR some time in the future (‘the British people don’t want to be bothered about constitutional change until the deficit is reduced’) with the Tories deciding on the question to be put.

Add in a couple of cabinet jobs (not Vince Cable, please) and it could work. A part of me hopes it does.

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