Merkozy pick a fight

Oddly enough, despite all the talk over the years of Britain ‘wielding the handbag’ over Europe, and always being isolated, David Cameron’s recent nolle prosequi is the first time we have used the veto. It is to Cameron’s credit that he had the courage to do so – his civil servants, euro-fanatics all, will have advised him not to – and he will have earned credit with his party, something he can use right now.

But the background, and the implications, are more complicated.

Sarkozy always wanted a decision taken among the 17 of the Eurozone, not among the EU as a whole, and got his way with Merkel. Merkozy, as they are called, presented a bare threat to Cameron concerning the regulation of the City of London, which they knew he could not accept, forcing him, I suspect against his will, to opt out. And they were right: if he had gone back to England without even protection for our largest industry he would probably have lost his job.

The implications are interesting. Tory MPs are scenting blood, and pointing out, correctly, that because the Eurozone countries can force majority decisions on the rest of Europe, it is time to reassess our relationship. At the same time, if Cameron goes too far on this it will break up his coalition.

So we could find ourselves come next Spring with a general election, in which I suspect Cameron could achieve a serious working majority: he just needs to play the independence card which goes down well with the country. The Liberal Democrats would be annihilated and the UK Independence Party would seem largely irrelevant. Labour have neither the money nor the credible policies to fight a serous campaign.

So Cameron could find himself, without ever having wanted it, as a committed anti-EU operator. Merkozy will have picked a fight when they really didn’t need to.