02 February, 2013


An interesting Italian opnion poll from Swg shows that following the MPS scandal the left, which owns and runs the bank, is suffering in the polls. Berlusconi is now within 5% of Bersani (27.8% to 32.8%) whilst comedian Beppe Grillo's 5-star movement is beating Mario Monti for third place (18% to 14%).

Interestingly the poll analyses non-voting intentions: some 30% of Italians have announced they probably won't vote and of these the proportion is slightly higher among practising catholics than non-practising, but on average catholics are far more likely not to vote (33%) than non-catholics (18%).

Interestingly older people (45-54) are less likely to vote (39%) than the 18-24 group (21%). People in low income groups are less likely to vote.

One interesting point the poll doesn't mention is the weather: this is the first time in living memory that the Italians have been asked to vote in winter. If it is a bad day, perhaps those wondering whether to vote or not won't bother, whereas those with a point to make (those favouring Grillo?) will force themselves out.

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