Bahrain

The unrest in Bahrain was not, I think, predicted (certainly not by me), but there is no shortage of reasons for it:

- There is an American base, with part of the Fifth Fleet and 1,500 personnel

- The ruling family and its (inevitable in the Arab World) hangers on are Sunni, whilst more than half of the population is Shia.

- One fifth of the population is Hindu (Bahrainis import Indians for menial labour)

- Bahrain has a modern outlook: women vote, and there is a general liberalism not known in other Arab countries. Saudi aristocracy go there (it is connected by a causeway) to get some girls, whisky and cocaine.

- Against that there is a well entrenched Islamist tendency which did well in the 2006 elections.

Having said all that Bahrain is not Egypt; it has a GDP per capita of around $20,000, more than 7 times Egypt's. And it is not on the Red Sea, it is 1,500 km east, on the Persian Gulf. It may have caught the Egyptian infection, but if so it has been by internet.

My guess is that this is a step too far, both for the Americans and for the Saudis. We can expect the protesters to be violently put down, a story spun about Jewish interference, and perhaps a few concessions by the King. Nothing to see here – move along.

That’s my guess, anyway. But we live in strange times.