Departure of a madman

History is of course written by the winners. We have nothing nice to say about Adolf Hitler, and Genghis Khan’s softer side is, alas, unknown. There was a point when Muammar Gaddafi was OK to talk to and deal with – obviously we wished he had indulged a little more in the democracy thing, you know – but now he is a loser.

Gaddafi has said he will hold out until the end, a martyr (although, see above, that’s not how he will be remembered), and will die, cornered, in a hail of bullets like the sons of Saddam Hussein, whose names no one can now remember.

What we now know as Libya was three regions – you couldn’t even call them countries – Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan. Idris al-Senussi, hereditary head of the ruling clan of Cyrenaica, having chosen the right side to fight on in World War II, and thus becoming Emir of Tripolitania, succeeded in uniting the three regions and was made King of Libya in 1951 at the age of 62. 18 years later, in Turkey for medical treatment and on the point of abdicating, he was deposed by a group of young officers led by Muammar al-Gadaffi, who was then 27.

So Libya turned from a group of tribal desert homelands immediately after the War to an internationally recognised independent monarchy to, well, something different in less than a quarter of a century.

Gaddafi was a supporter of Egypt’s Nasser, and practised a form of Islamic socialism, or rather socialism mixed with Islam. He was something of an internationalist, having tried to form an international anti-imperial league, then a centre for anti-imperial terrorism, then a pan Arabist league (he was a little too racy for some of the more conservative states) then a pan-African independence organisation. All these failed, but he secured his power base in oil rich Libya and, having admitted Libya’s involvement in the bombing of Flight 103 over Lockerbie, brought his country in from the cold.

Gaddafi ruled through a rigid system of favours and punishments. Although he formally gave up al governmental offices, his People’s Committees were firmly under his control. Corruption, as in all dictatorial societies which have been in power more than five years, was an all-pervading disease. Could he have kept on without the Jasmine movement all over North Africa? I think he could, although I doubt whether he could have taken it so far as to hand over power to one of his sons. We live in an internet age and people know how others live. GDP per person is $11,000 but most Libyans feel that their wealth is being stolen by Gaddafi’s elite.

Internationally, Gaddafi is seen as a bit of a joke, with his passion for uniforms and female bodyguard. Soon he will go, in a hail of bullets or in a private plane, light will be shone into the regime and the Libyans will see what they have had and what they have got now. They will find they are educated and healthy and that they have to earn their living internationally.

My guess is that Gaddafi will be seen by history as mad, but not quite so bad as was thought by some. If there is lawlessness in Libya that will lead to poverty and they may cast their minds back wistfully to the time of tyranny. And depending on what comes next, the West may regret seeing the back of him, too.