26 September, 2010
I believe they have chosen the wrong one; easy with two identical surnames on the ballot. Ed is the younger and more old labour of the two. His first problem, given that David Miliband won more votes from the MPs and the members, is that he will be seen as the candidate imposed by the unions, and the unions are about to become very unpopular, with a series of strikes which, they barely conceal, are political in nature.
Ed's second problem is that he has evinced a belief that his party can win using its core vote. I do not believe that to be the case. Brother David would have reached out to other voters.
All Ed can now do is moan about the cuts, while there are signs that the people believe them to be necessary.
Lastly, I think this is a good race in which to have come second. Unless the next few years are a disaster, the voters will be giving another chance to Mr Cameron. If Ed loses narrowly in 2015 he will be allowed to stay on. If he loses badly his career will be over almost before it has begun.
I hope Ed enjoyed the celebrations last night. They look to be his last bit of fun for a while.