30 May, 2012

Assad: still there

'Diplomatic pressure on Assad mounts' says the FT. I'm not sure that a man who can order the systematic slaughter of children is going to be too upset by having his chargé d'affaires sent home from Portugal. He is still there, and his opponents must be wondering what it would take to dislodge him.

The West cannot intervene militarily. It's not just that we are tired of war, it's that it would be opposed by Russia and in all probability China. Equally we can't arm the opposition because it would start an East-West proxy war.

The only people who can do something, whether it is intervention, assistance to the rebels or diplomatic pressure, are the Saudis and the Qataris: nations that are sufficiently strong in energy-wealth not to fear the Russians, and for whom Syria is their back yard. The people of Syria are largely Sunni, like them, although the Assad government is Alawite, a branch of the Shia sect.

The Saudis and Qataris will be nervous of a Sunni-Shia conflict, and nervous of arming the rebels but I fear if they don't the butchery will continue.

The one thing the British can do is cancel the citizenship of his wife. We certainly don't want the expense of her taking up residence.

1 comment:

DAVID C PHILLIPS; Captain USAF Reserves [1962-1978] said...

FROM YOUR UNIQUE LOCALE and PERSPECTIVE, TIM -- Are former UN S-G KOFI ANNAN 'peace mission overtures' and initiatives DOA? Still on life support? Other? ** NO MENTION IN ANY U.S. media is 'a behind scenes role' of SIR BRIAN URQUHART, in New York City -- IMHO: A most formidable "peacekeeper" dating to UN's late Dag Hammarskjold [as S-G and before]. BU also founded the SAS and SBS commandos units, in the day. -dcp