11 June, 2012

Spain

Perhaps I misunderstood, but Spanish Finance Minister Luis de Guindos seemed to give an arrogant little talk, almost telling the assembled hacks they were jolly lucky to see him at all. Normally Prime Minister Rajoy doesn't speak to the press but this time he stood up for long enough to declare that this deal is great news for Europe (I am not making this up). He then went off to see a football match in Poland, while other members of the government went to see a tennis match in France. Nothing to see here, move on please.

So, the Spanish banks are getting €100bn from Europe?
No. The Spanish state (the money will be paid to an arm of the Government) is getting €100bn from the European taxpayer.

The money is described as coming from The EFSF / ESM, which is confusing. The first of these bodies, the European Financial Stability Facility, is down to its last €200bn, but €93bn of that is due from Spain.

The European Stability Mechanism is not yet in existence, not having been ratified by, among others, Germany. The German Parliament has already said it shouldn't be used to rescue banks

So this will sort it?
Ummm....not really.First there are doubts as to whether €100bn will be enough. Spanish banks already have admitted to €80bn of bad property loans, out of a total of €400bn. Analysts expect the Spanish property market has a further 30% to fall, which could double the amount of property loans in the 'bad debt' category.

But the markets are happy?
Markets rose this morning, but how long that will be the case is a moot point. Firstly, Spain can now be seen not to be able to raise the money it needs on its own. Whatever Rajoy says about this not being a bailout, that’s what it is. Secondly, Spain is responsible for 12% of the Eurozone bailout funds, which must be worth commensurately less now.

Finally the loans will be on the terms designed for the ESM, which means that existing bondholders rank behind the EFSF / ESM, which will make them grumpy. Those which have English Law bonds will call default, as they did in Greece, and have to be paid off.

But Europe is happy?
We....ll, the Germans don’t want this, the Irish will ask for the same terms as Spain got, the Finns are refusing and want collateral.

Describing all this as ‘good news for Europe’ reaches a level of mendacity which would have made Tony Blair blush.

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