17 June, 2012
Who's up for a crisis?
Syriza, which nobody had heard of prior to the first round elections, is an agglomeration of leftists of all hues, Greens and special interest groups. It is not a movement.
These are not British style first-past-the-post elections. Syriza may well emerge as the largest party, although that is far from certain, but it certainly will not have anything like enough votes to govern on its own. On Monday there will begin the series of negotiations and horse trading which do so much to damage the world's perception of proportional representation. No need to panic yet.
Forewarned is forearmed, the saying goes, but it doesn't apply to the European élite. You'd have thought that with so much advance notice of this they would be ready with a series of responses to cover all contingencies. They're not, and will start to think about it when the grown-ups get home from the G-20 binge in Mexico.
If Mr Tsipras were to be able to form a coalition, he would then have to do as he promised and try to renegotiate the bail out package. Some leaders (Merkel) will be wholly against this whereas others (Hollande) will be grudgingly in favour. These negotiations could run for months, while the EU drip feeds the Greek economy.
Never forget that the Euro is a political game. Its supporters don't want anyone to leave, ever.
So no need for tht extra blood pressure tablet on Monday. What is likely to happen is in fact the worst case scenario, that no one knows what to do or dares do anything, and we carry on kicking the can down the road, until the next crisis..